Bank of America Corporation (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC.PK) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call April 18, 2022 8:30 AM ET

Company Participants

Lee McEntire – Investor Relations

Brian Moynihan – Chief Executive Officer

Alastair Borthwick – Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Glenn Schorr – Evercore

John McDonald – Autonomous Research

Mike Mayo – Wells Fargo Securities

Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley

Matt O’Connor – Deutsche Bank

Erika Najarian – UBS

Ken Usdin – Jefferies

Steven Chubak – Wolfe Research

Vivek Juneja – JPMorgan

Gerard Cassidy – RBC

Chris Kotowski – Oppenheimer


Good day, everybody, and welcome to as we speak’s Bank of America Earnings Announcement. At this time, all members are in a listen-only mode. Later, you should have a possibility to ask questions through the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be aware, this name could also be recorded.

It is now my pleasure to show as we speak’s program over to Lee McEntire.

Lee McEntire

Good morning. Thank you, Katherine. Welcome. I hope everyone had a pleasant weekend, and thanks for becoming a member of the decision to overview the primary quarter outcomes. I belief everyone’s had an opportunity to overview our earnings launch paperwork. As all the time, they’re obtainable, together with the earnings presentation that we’ll be referring to throughout this name, on our Investor Relations part of the web site.

I’m going to first flip the decision over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening feedback; after which ask Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, to cowl the main points of the quarter.

Before I flip the decision over to Brian, simply let me remind you that we might make forward-looking statements and consult with non-GAAP monetary measures through the name. These forward-looking statements are primarily based on administration’s present expectations and the assumptions which are topic to dangers and uncertainties. Factors which will trigger precise outcomes to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings supplies and our SEC filings which are obtainable on the web site. Information about non-GAAP monetary measures, together with reconciliations to US GAAP, can be discovered within the earnings supplies which are obtainable on the web site.

So with that, take it away, Brian.

Brian Moynihan

Thank you, Lee, and good morning to all of you, and thanks for becoming a member of us. As we open our earnings name this quarter, we wish to acknowledge that there is — the humanitarian disaster proceed to happen in Ukraine and stay watchful and have supplied help from our firm to the Ukranian residents and staying prepared to assist additional the place we are able to.

Before we get into some dialogue on the present outlook and exercise, I wish to step again and concentrate on the massive image about Bank of America this quarter. In 1 / 4 that had quite a lot of variables present up, we delivered accountable progress once more.

We reported $7.1 billion in web earnings or $0.80 per diluted share. We grew income, we lowered prices, and we delivered our third straight quarter of working leverage popping out of pandemic.

Net curiosity earnings grew 13% and is anticipated to develop considerably from right here. We noticed a powerful mortgage progress. We grew deposits. We noticed a powerful funding flows. We made buying and selling earnings daily through the quarter. We grew pretax pre-provision earnings by 8%. We had a return on tangible widespread fairness of 15.5%.

All this got here in that quarter that noticed geopolitical battle, rising rates of interest, a pandemic, rising inflation considerations and far, far more. I wish to thank our crew for delivering on accountable progress as soon as once more.

So in the event you take a look at the statistics on slide two, you possibly can see a few of these highlights. You can see the natural progress engine that our firm is delivering as soon as once more. In our banking enterprise, you possibly can see the sturdy mortgage and deposit progress.

We grew and expanded buyer relationships throughout each enterprise. In truth, we grew web new checking accounts by greater than 220,000 this quarter alone. We opened new monetary facilities, and we renovated many others. We added extra digital capabilities and crossed 50% in digital gross sales.

In our Wealth Management companies, you possibly can see over $160 billion of consumer flows over the 12 months and greater than $4 trillion in consumer balances, together with Merrill Edge. We noticed each sturdy funding move efficiency along with banking flows.

Over the previous 12 months, we introduced on a major variety of web new households, 24,000 in Merrill; after which the two,000 within the non-public financial institution. Across the mixture of our Consumer and Wealth companies, we noticed greater than $90 billion of funding flows. We now have managed consumer balances, together with deposits mortgage investments of greater than $5 trillion with us.

In Global Markets, Jim DeMare and his crew had a strong quarter of gross sales and buying and selling outcomes, which included a report quarter for equities. Despite the market turmoil, we had zero days of buying and selling losses. And whereas the funding banking payment line was down from the report quarters of the previous 12 months, Matthew Koder and his crew produced strong outcomes with a powerful ahead pipeline, and we gained market share in a number of areas, together with transferring to quantity two within the mid-cap funding banking.

From a broader enterprise perspective, a part of managing prices whereas it comes from the drive we’ve got within the firm to offer enhanced digital capabilities to our clients, which in flip drives adoption for the digital engagement and decrease prices.

If you take a look at Slide 23 and past, you possibly can see we are actually promoting extra digitally than we’re in particular person. It takes each to achieve success. What makes them much more spectacular is all of the monetary facilities are actually open and again to working at their typical nice capability. So including the digital capability clearly will increase our whole manufacturing capabilities. You also can see our digital gross sales are actually twice the pre-pandemic stage simply three years in the past. Even extra spectacular, take a look at Zelle and Erica volumes, up greater than 4 occasions in pre-pandemic ranges.

We’re now processing extra outgoing Zelle transactions than checks. In our money professional cellular app with our business shoppers, we see many $5 billion utilization days. There are much more stats on the slide exhibiting sturdy digital progress. I commend to you to see how a excessive contact, hi-tech revolutionary firm drives natural progress.

This quarter, our resilience was examined. And as soon as once more, we maintained a concentrate on what we management and grew responsibly, earned our means by way of the turmoil. So as we talked to you through the quarter, a lot of you expressed questions concerning the affect of the macro surroundings and adjustments in our firm. So the lingering affect of the pandemic on provide chains and enterprise alternative, inflation and Fed discount of financial mixture, the impacts of Russian-Ukraine warfare, each on the primary order impact and second order results. We do stay conscious of all these. So might a slowdown within the financial system occur? Perhaps. But proper now, the dimensions of the financial system is larger than pre-pandemic ranges.

Consumer spending stays sturdy, unemployment is low and wages are rising. Company earnings are additionally usually sturdy. Credit is broadly obtainable. And our clients’ utilization of their strains of credit score remains to be low, i.e., they’ve capability to borrow extra.

We are all centered on the power of Fed to make use of their instruments to scale back inflation. We know that can take rates of interest with charge hikes and a discount within the stability sheet. We predict it can sluggish the financial system from 3% progress in 2022 to somewhat beneath 2% in 2024 – 2023, excuse me. That is again to pattern. So the rate of interest hikes comes higher NII.

Could the Fed needed to push tougher to promote inflation? Perhaps. That is why we run stress take a look at every quarters to have a look at eventualities to see what would occur in a extremely inflationary surroundings. If charges been put quick although by the implication of capital? For certain, as you noticed some on this quarter. But within the context of the capital construct, these impacts are manageable.

The affect will increase earnings additionally. And then over time, the bonds pull again to par. All that leads to a rebuild of the capital fairly shortly. But for some quick time frame, that capital utilization, together with buyer utilization, would possibly sluggish share repurchase somewhat bit, however it is going to be short-term.

What if we’re fallacious and issues do get harder? We already know what that appears like in 2020, as we constructed important reserves, we additionally constructed 90 foundation factors of capital through the financial shutdown interval. Rates moved in opposition to us and earnings fell. So we’ve got already confirmed resilient. We proceed to concentrate on responsive progress and issues we management.

If you go to slip three, I wish to point out to indicate a number of the strengths we see in our US shopper base. Bank of America customers spent on the highest-ever quarter one stage, which is a double-digit share improve over the 2021 stage which you can see within the higher left.

From our card spend up to now, we’ve got seen a powerful restoration in journey, entertain, restaurant spending. In the higher proper, you possibly can see that. By the best way, even with the gasoline prices up 40% and extra from final 12 months, gasoline represents about 6% of general debit and bank card spending and so much much less of general spending as automobile as you possibly can see within the decrease left is 21% of all spending.

Importantly, regardless of March of final 12 months, together with stimulus bonus, we noticed the spending within the month of March 2022 on a comparable foundation to 2021, 13% larger by greenback quantity and we noticed a 7.4% improve within the variety of transactions. So, each greenback volumes and numbers of transactions rose properly.

And as you count on, the message by which individuals spend continues to shift away from money and checks to exchange with digital alternate options. And you possibly can see that observe. Our knowledge confirmed continued progress within the common deposit stability throughout all buyer ranges, which suggests capability for sturdy spending proceed.

On an aggregated foundation, common deposit balances have been up 47% from pre-pandemic ranges and 15% larger than 2021. And the momentum continued by way of quarter one, notably within the low stability accounts, which grew in February to March, persevering with a streak since mid-last 12 months.

Now a few examples so you possibly can see how this works. We regarded on the pre-pandemic clients who had $1,000 to $2,000 of clear balances BAC. Today, we’ve got a — at the moment, pre-pandemic had a mean stability of 1.4 — or $1,400. You take that very same cohort of shoppers with — the identical clients in 2022 versus 2019, they usually have a mean clear stability of now of $7,400. So, they elevated from $1,400 to $7,400.

If you go to the subsequent cohort up, these with $2,000 to $5,000 of cleared balances within the pre-pandemic, their common was $3,250. Now those self same clients as we speak have a mean cleared stability of $12,500. What does that inform us? The customers are sitting on lots of money. Why that is true whilst you know, excessive wage progress, excessive financial savings by restricted enabled spending. But what it means is a protracted tail to shopper spend progress. And in April by way of the primary two spending is rising and as quick at 18% over April 2021.

Another financial signal posted a continuation of mortgage progress. A 12 months in the past, we highlighted the inexperienced shoots of our mortgage progress. We then delivered a progress in quarter two and quarter three and quarter 4 regardless of PPP runoff and the change in financial situations. To convey the place we’re as we speak, we concentrate on ending loans to provide you a development by way of the quarter.

If you go to slip 4, you possibly can see the highlights of that progress within the higher left of the slide. I might remind you that in quarter 4, we highlighted to you that of the $55 billion of progress in that single quarter, $16 billion was Global Markets. So, we didn’t count on that to carry true for quarter considered one of 2022. So as we thought, Global Markets did come down $5 billion this quarter. Despite that, general business loans grew $13 billion from quarter 4, excluding PPP. That means business loans, excluding Global Markets, grew $17 billion.

Every single buyer group, world banking, massive company, center market, enterprise banking crew in addition to business loans and Wealth Management. That enchancment got here from each new loans in addition to bettering utilization charges from current shoppers. You can see within the high chart, loans have moved again above our pre-pandemic ranges on the right-hand facet of the slide, and you may see it being led by business.

Consumer loans proceed to develop late quarter as effectively. This is regardless of typical seasonality and regardless of the continued suppressed bank card stability, as you possibly can see on the decrease left. Mortgage loans grew $4 billion, originations remained at excessive ranges, and paydowns declined.

Card loans declined $2 billion from quarter 4, pushed by the switch of $1.6 billion affinity card mortgage portfolio to the held on the market class, absent that switch, card loans would have declined very modestly, whereas, the earlier quarter — one quarter, they declined a number of billion.

On slide 5, we offer knowledge round shopper shoppers’ leverage and asset high quality as in comparison with pre-pandemic intervals, which additional helps our perception that buyers stay in fine condition. On the higher left, we checked out our clients which have each a bank card and a deposit account with us.

As you’ll be aware, the common card stability of our bank card clients that had deposit relationships are nonetheless 8% decrease than they have been pre-pandemic. They proceed to pay down their balances on a month-to-month foundation at the next charge than pre-pandemic. And as you recognize, delinquency charges are considerably decrease.

Further, as you possibly can see in my earlier level, these borrowing clients have constructed important further financial savings, and their common deposit balances have been up 39%. So quite a lot of power or dry powder is its objective. So what if we went to the modest FICO as extra modest quantity of low FICO clients you may have at BAC. Looking at that small subset of our base, you possibly can see an analogous pattern, even stronger on money balances and decrease debt ranges.

And you see within the backside charts, we consider this isn’t only a phenomena at BAC as {industry} knowledge factors round debt service ranges are hovering close to historic lows and family deposit and money ranges are $3 trillion larger than we entered the disaster.

Now a phrase on Russia. This will not be an space of fabric direct publicity for Bank of America. More than a decade in the past, we have lowered our publicity in Russia, and it is lead to having 90% much less earlier than the latest disaster. Our present very restricted actions in Russia are centered on compliance with all sanctions and different authorized and regulatory necessities.

Our lending and counterparty publicity to firms primarily based in Russia totals roughly $700 million and is proscribed to 9 Russian-based debtors. It’s largely comprised of top-tier commodity exporters with a historical past of sturdy money flows who proceed to make funds. Prior to the Ukrainian invasion, these publicity have been principally funding grade, we report all of them on our reservable criticized.

Our quarter one allowance consists of elevated reserves from this direct publicity. And I simply be aware that even with the addition of those loans to reservable criticized, we nonetheless declined $1.7 billion on this class through the first quarter. We proceed our day by day monitoring with sanctions and curiosity funds would possibly affect these loans. We additionally consider our portfolios and proceed to take action contemplating second order affect to this disaster.

Currently, we consider this to be modest and mirror our worldwide technique to concentrate on massive multinational shoppers which have geographically various operations. Our quarter one allowance for credit score losses displays all of this stuff as effectively.

On Russian counterparty threat, our groups have carried out an amazing job from ending down our exposures. And on the finish of the quarter, we’ve got de minimis, that means lower than $20 million counterbalance exposures with a single Russian primarily based counterparty. And very restricted impacts from quarter — and any of these impacts are in our buying and selling outcomes for this quarter.

So accountable progress has served us effectively right here. And as you would possibly be aware, after the 2014 Crimea battle, we deliberately lowered our publicity. And Russia has not been our high 20 nation threat publicity desk since 2015.

So a couple of feedback on NII. On NII, bear in mind the speed will increase got here late within the quarter and had little first quarter 2022 NII affect. And there have been two fewer days of curiosity within the quarter and decreased PPP charges harm NII progress, but we nonetheless grew NII by $200 million in-line with our steerage we gave you final quarter. Given the ahead curve expectation for larger rates of interest and our expectations of additional mortgage progress, we count on important NII enchancment by way of the subsequent a number of quarters. Alistair will increase on this level for you.

We have greater than $2 trillion of deposits and $1.4 trillion of these are with our shopper wealth administration shoppers with greater than 40% of these and low to no curiosity checking. That is a franchise that is not rivaled. We will profit because the charges transfer off to 04s permitting us to earn more cash on these examine and deposits.

Deposits, I do know some — a number of of you’re questioning if deposits can proceed to develop as charges start to rise. So, we went again and regarded on the final rising cycle within the final decade. We pinpointed the height charge paid to clients through the quarter mirrored of this peak Fed tightening. We then went again and regarded on the 12 months previous progress charge in deposits. And in reality, throughout that 12 months previous that peak, deposits grew 5%, pushed by natural progress engine, our market share positive factors and general financial progress.

If we go to Page – Slide 6, you possibly can see that remark — the place we talked about capital. Just to start out off, our capital remained sturdy with 10.4% CET1 ratio effectively above our 9.5% minimal requirement. As you possibly can see $7 billion of earnings, web of most well-liked dividends, generated 41 foundation factors of capital. If you look on the right-hand facet of the web page, you possibly can see that 14 foundation factors of that capital was used to assist our clients’ progress, that is factor. We additionally returned $4 billion to shareholders in widespread dividends and share repurchase, will characterize about 27 foundation factors of use.

Despite the treasury and mortgage-backed securities charges induced the honest worth of our AFS debt securities to lower and lowered our CET1 by 21 foundation factors. That’s the half that goes by way of the calculation of the capital. While one would not count on this affect each quarter, we’re effectively positioned — we have been effectively positioned for the spike. As you recall, we invested a lot of our securities books and held to maturity attributable to our enormous extra and secure deposit base. We have $2 trillion of deposits and fewer than $1 trillion in loans.

In addition to be cautious, we hedge a big portion of securities within the AFS portfolio, defending it from a a lot bigger hit to AOCI. I remind you, because the securities mature, the AOCI reverses and better charges lead to larger NII over a comparatively quick time frame. That ought to lead to larger earnings that can profit CET1 ratios on an ongoing foundation and greater than offset the damaging upfront AOCI affect.

Last factor I might be aware is our stability sheet progress to assist our buyer means our GSIB buffer will in all probability transfer larger by 50 foundation factors starting in 2024, i.e., to 10% regulatory minimums. Well, that is practically two years away, we proceed to maneuver in direction of it. Given this new larger minimal over the subsequent couple of years, we’ll look to step by step transfer to focus on CET1 vary of 10.75% in direction of 11%. Importantly, whereas we develop into this vary, we’ll have the ability to assist our shoppers, we’ll have the ability to proceed to extend our dividend, and we’ll have the ability to proceed to buyback inventory.

With that, let me flip it over to Alastair.

Alastair Borthwick

Thank you, Brian, and I’ll begin with the abstract earnings assertion on Slide 7, the place you possibly can see our comparisons illustrating 3% year-over-year working leverage produced by rising income and managing our prices effectively. That was practically sufficient to beat the change in provision expense, pushed by the $2.7 billion reserve launch within the year-ago interval in comparison with a $400 million launched this quarter.

On asset high quality, extra broadly, we proceed to see very sturdy metrics. Net charge-offs remained low, and in reality, they’re down greater than 50% in simply the previous 12 months. Consumer early and late-stage delinquencies are nonetheless beneath 2019 ranges, and reservable criticized moved decrease once more in Q1.

Looking forward, we proceed to be ok with the asset high quality outcomes of our shopper and business companies close to time period, given our clients’ excessive liquidity, low unemployment and rising wages.

We produced good returns once more this quarter with an ROTCE of practically 16%, and we delivered $4.4 billion of capital again to shareholders, driving common shares decrease by 6% year-over-year.

Looking ahead and with continued expectations of rising NII, mixed with sturdy expense management, we count on to drive working leverage and see our effectivity ratio work again in direction of 60%.

So let’s flip to slip eight and the stability sheet. And you possibly can see through the quarter, our stability sheet grew $69 billion to somewhat greater than $3.2 trillion. This mirrored $14 billion of progress in loans and the expansion of our Global Markets stability sheet, as clients elevated their exercise with us. Our decline in money this quarter was related dangerous progress in Global Markets.

Our liquidity portfolio was secure in comparison with year-end. And at $1.1 trillion, it represents roughly a-third of the stability sheet. Shareholders’ fairness declined $3.4 billion from This fall with a couple of completely different part facet of be aware.

Shareholders’ fairness benefited from web earnings after most well-liked dividends of $6.6 billion, in addition to issuance of $2.4 billion in most well-liked inventory. So that is $9 billion that flowed into fairness in Q1. And we paid out $4.4 billion in widespread dividends and share repurchases.

AOCI declined because of the spike in mortgage charges that Brian referenced, and we noticed the affect in two waves. First, we had a discount from a change within the worth of our AFS debt securities, that was $3.4 billion. That’s the piece that impacts CET1, as Brian famous.

And second, charges additionally drove a $5.2 billion decline in AOCI from derivatives, however doesn’t affect CET1. That displays money move hedges in opposition to our variable charge ones, which supplies some NII progress and guarded CET1 on the similar time.

With regard to regulatory capital, since Brian already talked about CET1, I’d merely be aware that our supplemental leverage ratio was secure at 5.4% versus the minimal requirement of 5%, and nonetheless leaves us loads of capability for stability sheet progress. And our TLAC ratio stays comfortably above our necessities.

Turning to slip 9, we included the schedule on common mortgage balances. And within the curiosity of time, the one factor I might add to Brian’s earlier feedback, and to your perspective, is solely a reminder that PPP loans are down $19 billion year-over-year. There’s only a few billion of these left. And excluding PPP, our whole loans grew $89 billion or 10% in comparison with final 12 months.

Moving to deposits on Slide 10. First, let’s take a look at year-over-year progress. And throughout the previous 12 months, we noticed strong progress throughout the consumer base as we deepened relationships and added web new accounts. Our year-over-year common deposits are up $240 billion or 13%. Retail deposits with our Consumer and Wealth Management companies grew $190 million, and our retail deposits have now grown to greater than $1.4 trillion, the place we lead all opponents.

Looking at linked-quarter progress from This fall and mixing Consumer and Wealth Management buyer balances, our retail deposits grew $53 billion in simply the previous 90 days. With our business shoppers, they’re up properly year-over-year, and we merely be aware the Q1 decline, which is totally in keeping with earlier 12 months’s seasonal developments.

Turning to Slide 11 and web curiosity earnings. On a GAAP non-FTE foundation, NII in Q1 was $11.6 billion. And the FTE NII quantity was $11.7 billion. So I’ll concentrate on FTE, the place web curiosity earnings has now elevated $1.4 billion from the primary quarter final 12 months. As Brian famous, that is 13% improve pushed by deposits progress and our associated funding of liquidity. NII was up $200 million versus the fourth quarter as the advantages of decrease premium amortization and loans progress greater than offset the headwinds of two much less days of curiosity accruals and decrease PPP charges.

So let’s pause for a second to debate asset sensitivity as a result of I wish to make a few factors as we start what the Fed has stated effectively to be a major charge hike interval. Remember, asset sensitivity is our measure of NII for the subsequent 12 months above an anticipated baseline of NII, given adjustments in rates of interest and different assumptions. In an surroundings of sharply rising charges every quarter, the baseline of NII — precise NII will increase and, due to this fact, the long run sensitivity declines.

Now we usually disclose our asset sensitivity primarily based on a 100 foundation level instantaneous parallel shock in charges above the ahead curve. And on that foundation, asset sensitivity at March 31 was $5.4 billion of anticipated NII over the subsequent 12 months, and 90% of that sensitivity is pushed by quick charges. That $5.4 billion is down from $6.5 billion at year-end, largely as a result of larger charges are actually factored into and operating by way of our precise or baseline NII.

Well, you requested the query final quarter about the identical sensitivity on a spot foundation relative to our present curve. And on condition that the yield curve is projecting 125 foundation factors of charge hikes over the subsequent three conferences, we thought it was acceptable to offer that disclosure.

So in a 100 foundation level shock to the present curve utilizing spot charges, our sensitivity to that sort of transfer could be $6.8 billion or $1.4 billion larger than on a ahead foundation. So assuming rising charges as mirrored in as we speak’s ahead curve and if we see continued loans progress, I might simply reiterate what we stated final quarter that we count on to see sturdy NII progress in 2022 in comparison with 2021. We’re not going to offer numerical steerage for the total 12 months as a result of the adjustments in rates of interest have confirmed fairly risky in simply the final 90 days, not to mention a 12 months. We do present that asset sensitivity in an effort to use it as guardrails to consider adjustments as you modify your individual assumptions.

I do, nevertheless, wish to present a near-term expectation and say that if loans develop and charges within the ahead curve materialize, we might count on to see NII in Q2 improve by greater than $650 million over the Q1 stage after which develop once more considerably on a sequential foundation in every of the next two quarters.

Okay. Let’s flip to bills, and we’ll use slide 12 for that dialogue. Our Q1 bills have been $15.3 billion, down a pair hundred million from the year-ago interval. I’ll focus my remarks on the newer comparability versus This fall the place we’re up $600 million. And as anticipated, and we conveyed to you final quarter, the Q1 improve was pushed principally by seasonality of payroll tax expense or roughly $400 million. We additionally skilled modestly larger wage and profit prices.

As we glance ahead, we proceed to speculate closely in know-how, individuals, and advertising throughout our strains of enterprise, and we have continued so as to add new monetary facilities in enlargement and progress markets.

We modestly elevated our full 12 months new tech initiative funds for the 12 months to $3.6 billion. And that is on high of — that is on high of greater than $35 billion that we put to work over the previous 12 years to assist us construct highly effective, safer, and scalable know-how platforms. This is the funding that allowed us to keep up a management place in patents amongst our friends. We had 512 of them granted in 2021 and we’re sustaining in an analogous tempo this 12 months. We assume this is without doubt one of the issues that is occurred to guard our moat round management positions in locations that matter most to clients.

In addition to modestly larger advertising prices this 12 months, our investments additionally embrace including as much as 100 new monetary facilities. And we additionally plan to renovate greater than 800 extra through the 12 months. We can even proceed our upward march on minimal hourly wage towards $25 by 2025. So, how can we pay for all that? Through continued work on operational excellence and digital engagement.

And as we glance to Q2, we count on our bills to be down modestly from Q1, as a lot of the seasonal payroll tax expense abates and is considerably offset by funding timing, inflation, and the price of opening up extra totally for journey and clone leisure. Because it seems like we have quite a lot of pent-up demand for face-to-face conferences by our shoppers and our individuals.

So, let’s flip to asset high quality on slide 13. And as you possibly can see, asset high quality of our clients stays very wholesome. Net charge-offs this quarter have been higher than our expectations as soon as once more and remained beneath $400 million, down 52% in comparison with Q1 2021.

Provision expense was $30 million in Q1 as reserve launch of $362 million intently matched web charge-offs within the quarter. And that reserve launch was primarily in our shopper portfolios.

On slide 14, we spotlight the credit score high quality metrics for each our shopper and business portfolios, and I’m glad to reply any questions later, however a few issues are value repeating. Consumer delinquencies stay effectively beneath pre-pandemic ranges. And regardless of reporting our business Russian lending publicity in reservable criticized, these ranges nonetheless declined $1.7 billion from This fall. NPI noticed modest improve and that merely displays a small quantity of shopper actual property deferrals expiring with the expiration of the CARES Act.

Turning to the enterprise segments. One factor we might ask you simply to bear in mind for every of the companies is Q1 expense consists of the seasonal payroll tax expense, which has negatively impacted effectivity ratios or revenue margins in Q1. Also, and as typical, Q1 of yearly consists of section capital stage analysis. And you will be aware, we put further capital in opposition to every of the companies attributable to their progress. And as typical, we have tried to incorporate enterprise developments and digital stats for every section.

So let’s begin with Consumer Banking on slide 15, the place you possibly can see the Consumer Bank earned practically $3 billion. That’s 11% up over Q1 2021 as income progress greater than offset the bigger prior interval reserve launch. It’s in all probability most simply recognized by taking a look at pre-tax pre-provision earnings, which grew 32% year-over-year.

Revenue grew 9% on NII enchancment, and expense declined 4%, creating 13% working leverage and the fourth consecutive quarter of working leverage for our Consumer crew.

Notable buyer exercise highlights included our 228,000 web new checking accounts opened in Q1, which represents our thirteenth consecutive quarter of web new shopper checking account progress. Now this occurred as we started to implement our beforehand introduced inadequate funds and overdraft coverage adjustments, which lowered our service expenses about $80 million.

So throughout this time, we noticed accounts develop and we noticed bills decline. We additionally grew funding accounts 7%, and we noticed these balances develop 10% from Q1 ’21 to $350 billion, and that included $20 billion of consumer flows. And as soon as once more, we opened practically a million bank cards within the quarter and grew common energetic card accounts and noticed progress in mixed credit score and debit spend of 15%.

Our continued funding in digital capabilities drove exercise with our clients as we crossed 50% in digital gross sales this quarter and we continued funding in our monetary facilities, opening one other eight within the quarter. It’s additionally value noting that small enterprise noticed continued progress in loans, in deposits and in spending. Small enterprise card spend was up 28% year-over-year. It offers you an concept of how small companies are reopening for enterprise.

I’d additionally draw your consideration to slip 22 within the appendix. We’ve shared this with you beforehand, and it merely highlights the origination power and high quality of our shopper underwriting. Throughout all the things, our underwriting requirements have remained constant.

Moving to slip 16. Wealth Management produced sturdy outcomes incomes $1.1 billion, and that represented 28% year-over-year progress, pushed by sturdy income enchancment, good expense administration and low credit score prices. Bank of America continues to ship Wealth Management at scale throughout a full vary of our consumer segments and with the very best advisers within the {industry} in response to Barron’s rankings.

That, coupled with our digital management, is delivering a contemporary Merrill and a contemporary Private Bank for shoppers by way of enterprise relationships and our shoppers and advisors have acknowledged the worth in a holistic monetary relationship that extends throughout investments, planning and banking. And that is what helped drive the $150 billion of shoppers’ stability flows that you simply see right here over the previous 12 months.

Not solely did we see sturdy funding flows of greater than $70 billion, however deposits grew $59 billion, up 18%, and we added $22 billion in loans over the identical interval, marking our forty eighth consecutive quarter of common loans progress within the enterprise, simply constant and sustained efficiency from the crew.

Revenues grew 10% to a brand new report and have been led by 25% progress in NII on the again of these strong deposit and loans will increase, in addition to a 9% enchancment in asset administration charges. Expenses elevated 4%, pushed by larger revenue-related prices and resulted in over 600 foundation factors of working leverage. And we generated practically 7,000 in web new households in Merrill and greater than 800 within the non-public financial institution this quarter.

Moving to Global Banking on Slide 17. The enterprise momentum with our Commercial shoppers remained sturdy within the first quarter. The enterprise earned $1.7 billion in Q1, down $450 million year-over-year, pushed by the absence of a giant prior interval reserve launch and decrease funding banking income. Revenue enchancment of 12% year-over-year mirrored larger leasing-related income and NII progress, partially offset by these decrease funding banking charges. Net curiosity earnings grew on the again of sturdy loans and deposits progress.

And the leasing income enchancment included extra ESG-related investments, notably in photo voltaic, in addition to the absence of weather-related losses recorded final 12 months. While the corporate’s general funding banking charges of $1.5 billion declined 35% year-over-year, we gained market share in some vital areas and recorded a quantity three rating in general charges. And importantly, our funding banking pipeline stays fairly wholesome.

Provision expense mirrored a reserve construct of $177 million in comparison with a $1.2 billion launch within the year-ago interval, and this quarter’s provision consists of reserves taken for Russia publicity and different concerns for loans progress, offset by continued enchancment in asset high quality metrics. Finally, we noticed expense decline by 4%, driving sturdy working leverage.

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 18 and as we normally do, I’ll discuss concerning the section outcomes, excluding DVA. Q1 web earnings of $1.5 billion displays a strong quarter of gross sales and buying and selling income and it features a new report for equities. The enterprise generated a 15% return in Q1 even with a 12% improve within the capital allotted to the enterprise.

Our investments on this enterprise noticed good outcomes as our financing shoppers proceed to extend their actions with our firm. Focusing on year-over-year, gross sales and buying and selling contributed $4.7 billion to income. Versus This fall, that was a 58% enchancment, somewhat larger than typical seasonality. And versus Q1 ’21, we noticed a decline of 8% because the prior 12 months included larger commodities outcomes attributable to weather-related occasions.

FICC declined 19%, whereas equities improved 9%. That FICC decline displays the upper prior interval commodities and a weaker credit score buying and selling surroundings. And it was partially offset by improved efficiency throughout our macro merchandise, particularly charges and overseas change.

The power in equities was pushed by sturdy efficiency in derivatives. And year-over-year expense declined, reflecting the absence of prices related to the realignment of a liquidating enterprise exercise to the all different unit, in addition to some Q1 2021 accelerated price for incentive adjustments. Absent these impacts, bills have been up modestly.

Finally, on slide 19, we present all different, which reported a lack of $364 million, declining $620 million from the year-ago interval. Revenue declined because of larger quantity of offers, notably photo voltaic, and due to this fact, larger partnership losses on ESG investments, and that is partially offset by the tax affect on this reporting unit.

Expense elevated because of prices now recorded right here on this section, following the This fall realignment of that liquidating enterprise out of Global Markets. And as a reminder, for the monetary assertion presentation on this launch, the enterprise segments are all taxed on a regular totally taxable equal foundation. So in all different, we incorporate the affect of our ESG tax charges and every other uncommon gadgets.

For the quarter for the corporate, our efficient tax charge was 10%, benefiting from ESG funding tax credit. And excluding the tax credit, the tax charge would have been roughly 24%. We count on our efficient tax charge in 2022 to be between 10% to 12%, absent any tax legislation adjustments or any uncommon gadgets.

And with that, let’s open it up, please, for Q&A.

Question-and-Answer Session


[Operator Instructions] We’ll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore. Your line is open.

Glenn Schorr

Hi. Thanks very a lot. And forgive me if it is a drop lengthy. But, I take heed to all of your feedback concerning the shopper, about spending, about no actual stresses in credit score, web charge-offs nonperforming, debt service ranges, all that sounds nice.

And previously, I feel larger charges have been designed to tug leverage from the system and name some recessions. And so, the market is making an attempt to assign some share likelihood in direction of a recession, but each remark I hear out of your mouth would not sound like we’re going in direction of a recession.

So I needed to see if I might, A, get you to remark in your ideas round as we speak’s surroundings versus historical past? And then, additionally, particularly ask what you probably did with the ins and outs in reserves? And in the event you modified any macro eventualities as you bake in CECL outcomes? Thanks for that. Thanks for bearing with me.

Alastair Borthwick

Thanks, Glenn. So you are proper to select up on the commentary, as a result of Brian’s highlighted the power of the patron, which stays extraordinary. And on the similar time, what we see on the asset high quality facet of economic is simply continued regular enchancment because the financial system reopens. So that is what we’re seeing. That’s contemporaneous.

Now, you are asking a query about, what does it appear to be sooner or later? And we’re clearly conscious of what the Fed is making an attempt to engineer. So going by way of this each quarter, as we all the time do, we’ve got a possibility to consider how we take a look at our reserves. And this quarter, we took a number of the upside top. We’ve bought somewhat extra weighting in direction of a baseline and somewhat extra in direction of draw back. So that is one factor we have carried out. Second factor we have carried out is we have upped our forecast for inflation. So we see that taking part in by way of. And these eventualities are somewhat extra weighted in direction of inflationary. And third, we’ve got adjusted GDP progress carried out, largely primarily based on blue-chip consensus. So we, such as you, are taking a look at two issues. Number one, we’re taking a look at what we’re seeing within the precise outcomes. And quantity two, we’re fascinated with how we stability that going ahead with our eventualities.

Brian Moynihan

Glenn, I feel simply usually, Fed has a process to bringing inflation out of the system. And our GDP assumptions, like [indiscernible] companion crew, they’re for the financial system, the slowest progress charge from this 12 months to subsequent 12 months. The query of nice debate is a gentle lining, arduous lining, et cetera. But I feel what’s uncommon this time is how a lot money is sitting within the customers’ accounts.

If you’re sitting right here after they begin normalizing charges in the midst of the final decade, late to center final decade, you would not have seen the patron balances sitting with these multiples I gave you earlier of their accounts after which having large borrowing capability left by way of unused credit score strains and the identical on the business facet

Lines are bouncing alongside simply above the low level. And so we proceed to regulate our reserve ranges to, as Alastair stated, to think about our base case consists of larger inflation by way of the remainder of the 12 months. And subsequent 12 months, our seats reserves, set by that base case, which is a 40% weighting to antagonistic, frankly equal possibly 40% of the particular reserves we’ve got, as a result of the remaining are judgmental and in precision and issues like that.

So we’re very sturdy in reserve. And we’re very conscious that I feel it’s extremely completely different to consider the scenario the place the customers unemployment is already so low and the customers are sitting with cash. And I feel that places extra consideration on the Fed to how they architect a profitable change, they usually know that. But alternatively, it is a greater place to start out.

Glenn Schorr

I respect all that. One little tiny follow-up is in Global Banking, I seen $2 billion extra allotted capital. Deal exercise is down, however you talked about pipelines are good. So possibly you would simply discuss simply what is going on on there. Thank you.

Alastair Borthwick

Well, we do not have a terrific deal so as to add there. Obviously, we’re coming off of report quarters final 12 months. And we’re simply working available in the market situations that got. The volatility has clearly been hardest felt in fairness capital markets and in excessive yield. And throughout the board, we might say our pipelines look very sturdy. So I feel once I requested Matthew, he stated someplace between sturdy and really sturdy. So I ought to let you know all the things it’s essential know. But clearly, we’d like market situations to cooperate.

Glenn Schorr

Okay. Thanks a lot.


Our subsequent query comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

John McDonald

Hi, good morning. I used to be questioning in the event you might discuss somewhat bit about bills and working leverage. Are you continue to considering that bills might be flattish this 12 months within the $60 billion ballpark, Brian? And you probably did point out expectations for the effectivity ratio as our working leverage improves with NII, possibly that marches down from sort of the mid-60s to low 60s, I feel you stated?

Brian Moynihan

Yes. And Alastair gave you some element. But simply merely put, John, we count on to be comparatively flat for 2022 versus 2021. That’s the steerage we gave you final quarter. We do not see any completely different this quarter.

John McDonald

Okay, that is useful. And then, Alastair, possibly just a bit extra fleshing out concerning the capital and the way you are managing the CET1. Obviously, you are producing already capital every quarter above what you are paying out the dividend. It appeared like 30 foundation factors this quarter, and that in all probability will get higher. At the identical time, it seems like you might be going to handle as much as round 11 over the subsequent 12 months. Maybe you would simply give us a number of the dynamics there and the way that performs into the power to do some buybacks by way of the remainder of the 12 months? Thanks.

Alastair Borthwick

Yes. So, no change to our strategy, John, relative to prior years. I feel the waterfall that we laid out on slide six is fairly constructive. First precedence for us will stay simply spend money on progress. We’ll assist our shoppers and allow them to get after — and the groups get after the loans to assist our shoppers there.

Secondly, we’ll make the dividend funds. And then we’ll have capital left over for share buyback as we’ve got had previously. And we’ll make these selections within the context of future charge environments and future capital necessities. I feel Brian identified to you that we will construct capital over the course of the subsequent couple of years by about 50 foundation factors. We’ve bought seven quarters. So, it is a small quantity each quarter that we’ll be doing.

Brian Moynihan

And John, simply you stated working leverage. I’m happy with the crew. We have three straight quarters of working leverage. PPNR progress was sturdy. That’s completely different than what we have seen on the market usually. But bear in mind, through the — because the charges rose within the pre-pandemic softening and arduous touchdown and inherently methods in everyone’s thoughts, the straightforward truth is we had 20 straight quarters of working leverage, and we’re beginning to see that come by way of.

And in the event you take a look at the patron effectivity from the primary quarter final 12 months, this quarter, your level in effectivity ratio, this has all come by way of NII and all of it falls to the bottom-line. And due to this fact, you find yourself with a reasonably important affect in these companies, that are clearly extremely delicate progress in NII.

John McDonald

Got it. That’s useful. Thanks very a lot.


Our subsequent query comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Mayo

Hi. Brian and Alastair, I ponder in the event you can simply make a distinction tree within the financial, regulatory and accounting outlook. So, from the financial standpoint, your mark-to-market, your belongings and your securities, you noticed a swing to AOCI, however you do not mark-to-market that $1.4 billion of deposits.

From a regulatory standpoint, AOCI causes you to sluggish buybacks, I consider, you stated. however from an accounting or earnings standpoint, possibly you win in the long run, possibly you do not. So, I do know you are not giving particular steerage for NII. But simply at a primary stage, in case your information’s earnings outlook higher due to the NII and the upper fee charges and the higher effectivity, or is it worse as a result of you may have much less buybacks, possibly extra provisions because of the potential for a recession?

Brian Moynihan

Mike, these are all of the items. But merely put, I feel Alastair stated, NII decide up subsequent quarter. So you decide up the $200 million this quarter, you place that within the financial institution, then you definitely decide up one other $600 million plus subsequent quarter after which it grows with web out. So sure, that is large working leverage. And as we simply stated to John, bills are flat. So that flows by way of the underside line. All the completely different vagaries of not solely regulatory accounting versus GAAP accounting, but additionally what cap, the comp and the capital ratio calculation versus not, on the finish of the day, you stated $1.4 trillion. It’s $2 trillion of deposits, $1.4 trillion simply on the patron — for individuals facet of the enterprise. And even on the enterprise facet, we solely have operational deposits.

And so the tip of the day, these are very lengthy deposits. We extract the worth by way of investing, and that is why we put it in held the maturity. And the money move of that head to maturity portfolio is $20-odd billion 1 / 4 even in a charge surroundings adjustments.

So that — no matter hit we had, the CET1, the expansion in NII and the expansion in earnings energy and hat covers up within a 12 months. And so we really feel superb about that. So the speed surroundings the place we come off the zero flooring makes us much more cash. You know that, and we all know that.

Mike Mayo

Can you elaborate somewhat bit extra on what you imply by operational deposits? I do know you have talked about that and the linkages, and I suppose that is the explanation why you’ll count on deposits to be extra sticky. But are you able to elaborate somewhat bit extra? You talked about that Zelle and Erica volumes are up 4 occasions larger than pre-pandemic. So I suppose you may have somewhat bit extra lock-in, however in the event you might elaborate extra?

Brian Moynihan

On the patron facet, the individuals being Wealth Management customers and common customers, the $1.4 trillion have been 40% or extra in checking accounts, and that is the cash individuals have in movement in a given day. And what the massive quantity of comes from, frankly, you may have 35 million checking holders, which is a brand new report for us. And in order that’s vital. And all of the function performance helps them our retention for our most well-liked buyer base and the patron section, which represents 70% or 80% of all of the deposits is 99-point one thing. And so these clients stick with us a very long time.

What I meant operational accounts on the business facet, we — all of the money is cash in movement for these business clients, that means it is a part of the info money move. So whether or not it is small enterprise clients, whether or not it is enterprise banking clients, that are underneath $50 million income firms and even center market, this cash is coming out and in daily. And so it’s extremely secure. It would not disappear from the scenes.

And in the event you take a look at our GTS income, you possibly can see the Global Transaction Services income on the — web page on Gold Banking, you will see it is grown properly year-over-year, and that is because of the stability of that deposit base and what we see. So it isn’t going to maneuver away from the stability sheet. That’s the purpose I stated about — in a charge rising cycle, final charge rising cycle, as cash provide shrink, on the finish of the day, we grew deposits 5%. And so we’ll see what occurs as a result of it is completely different, however we really feel fairly assured.

Mike Mayo

All proper. Thank you.

Alastair Borthwick

Mike, the one the opposite factor I’d add is when Brian talks about working, it is one of many causes we spotlight that 92%, 93% of our shopper accounts are major. And we have had 99% plus retention charge on these accounts. So these are sticky deposits. That’s what we’re simply making an attempt to verify everybody understands.

Mike Mayo

All proper. Thank you.


We’ll go subsequent to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Betsy Graseck

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Two questions. One on bills, I do know you talked about this 12 months that you simply’re nonetheless anticipating comparatively flat and that you’d cope with inflation pressures, et cetera, from a number of the alternatives it’s important to get extra environment friendly. Can you give us a way as to how lengthy you assume you possibly can keep flat for? Like is that going to be into 2023 as effectively? And are you able to unpack a number of the belongings you’re doing to get extra environment friendly? I do know you probably did a ton of effectivity pre-COVID, so what’s left? Thanks.

Brian Moynihan

So Betsy bear in mind, coming into the pandemic we had hit the purpose the place we introduced bills down and stated we – now we’re an working leverage firm, so we’ll get income progress sooner than expense progress, however we might begin to develop modestly. Then the pandemic had quite a lot of bills coming out and in. But – and so once we say flat year-over-year, mainly that means ’23 versus ’22 in that $59 billion to $60 billion vary, our view is that our objective is to maintain that all the way down to a modest expense progress, if any, and as we transfer to ’24, etcetera. however we’re preventing all these dialogue you had. But the hot button is to have the income develop a lot sooner. And that is what we count on to see as NII kicks again up and effectivity ratios as Mike or John referenced, should sit back down fairly properly.

Betsy Graseck

Got it. And then the opposite query is simply additional charge backups, clearly 10 years already at 28, it is up 50 bps from March 31 so if it goes to love 33, we’ve got the identical sort of hit as this previous quarter. Can you simply give us a way as to the way you’re coping with that charge back-ups? Is there something you’ll do in a different way? Would you progress any AFS to HTM, or would you interact this new accounting rule that is been finalized in March 28 that lets you do final layer hedging on HTM e-book? I imply does any of that matter to you? And simply give us a way as to how for much longer this charge again up is, or would you modify the way you’re coping with it?

Brian Moynihan

Yes. So, the piece that can matter probably the most would be the AFS securities. And we have talked earlier than about the truth that we’ve got about 200 billion of treasuries there they usually’re all swapped to floating exactly to insulate us. So, I feel that is one of many causes you see our AOCI hit is far smaller than many others.

So then it is only a query of managing across the $50 billion or so of securities that we’ve got there that are not swapped to floating. And I’d simply be aware that, that quantity has come down somewhat bit months after months after months. I feel it can maintain coming down. We have some means, clearly, to hedge that if we select to. And so, we’ll handle our rate of interest publicity because the surroundings develops from right here.

Betsy Graseck

Okay. Thanks.


We’ll go now to Matt O’Connor with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Matt O’Connor

Hi. I hoped to get somewhat extra element on the web curiosity earnings trajectory within the again half of the 12 months, if we observe the ahead curve? And I respect you do not wish to give express steerage as a result of possibly a month from now, the speed surroundings will change, nevertheless it’s additionally the important thing driver for Bank of America’s earnings from right here and clearly, a really constructive story. So, one is once more, and possibly I’ll begin it with final quarter is up greater than $600 million. If you observe the ahead curve, it looks as if that quarter-on-quarter improve might truly speed up within the again half of the 12 months. So possibly I’ll go away it out so that you can run these?

Alastair Borthwick

Yes. So look, I feel we, broadly talking, agree with you. We clearly do not management charges. So that is why we’re all the time reluctant to provide steerage over the course of the subsequent 270 days. But we’re very levered to charges going up from right here. And we stated in our remarks that we consider the second quarter might be up at the very least $650 million in NII. And I feel in the event you take a look at the ahead curve, sure, you’ll count on to speed up over the course of the 12 months.

And then, we tried to provide the broad outlines round $5.4 billion versus ahead $6.8 billion versus spot, it is clearly very significant. But we’re solely ready to look out over the course of the subsequent 90 days, as a result of we really feel like we have fairly good confidence round that.

And I feel the opposite factor simply to keep in mind is, our subsequent assembly is in May. So you will see just like the Fed conferences and the hikes within the ahead curve actually do speed up issues within the again half of the 12 months.

Matt O’Connor

And how do you assume, if we do get sort of the second 100 foundation level charge improve of the market anticipating, what does that sort of appear to be by way of your charge sensitivity? And then, simply sort of squeezing comparable. At some level, your charge hikes not assist web curiosity earnings, or it helps, however simply to a lesser extent? Thank you.

Alastair Borthwick

Well, I feel simply the truth that you have bought $5.4 billion in comparison with $6.8 billion tells you somewhat bit about successive charge hikes grow to be much less useful. But we’re in all probability a good distance from the place they stopped having worth. So look, we count on, as Brian talked about, we’re sort of at a charge flooring when charges are at zero.

And clearly, we’ll get important profit over the course of the subsequent 100 foundation factors. I, such as you, would anticipate much less from the next 100. But once more, we will seize quite a lot of worth, as a result of our technique is predicated round working accounts in business and first accounts in shopper.

Brian Moynihan

Yes. The query all the time is, if the Fed is mountaineering charges due to inflation that they can not get again underneath management and you bought to have a look at the stuff out, everyone centered on NII, you bought to have a look at what is going on on within the financial system usually.

So that is why we’ve got important reserves in case it is tougher touchdown than individuals on the Fed wish to engineer. And that is why we run the corporate with such a stability. But usually, the next sustained charge surroundings will assist us earn much more cash.

And you noticed that decide up, as we picked up by way of 2016, 2017, 2018, and you will see it occur. Again, you have already seen it occur. Then we expect final 12 months first quarter, this 12 months first quarter, we had $1.4 billion extra NII per quarter. So that is — it is already helped and as mortgage and deposit progress are matched with some modest charge will increase.

Matt O’Connor

Thank you very a lot.


Our subsequent query comes from Erika Najarian with UBS. Your line is open.

Erika Najarian

Hi. Good morning. My first query is a follow-up to what Matt was asking about. Alastair, might you give us a way of what the deposit repricing assumption is within the plus $6.8 billion in sensitivity for the primary 100. And given your concentrate on major and working accounts, distinction that with chunkier charge hikes, how ought to we count on deposit repricing to behave within the second 100 foundation factors?

Alastair Borthwick

So we usually check out our deposit betas over the course of historical past. And in the event you return to the final three out cycle, 2015 by way of 2019, on common, you possibly can’t — it is clearly very completely different by account and line of enterprise and consumer. But on common, it was someplace between 20% and 25% for Bank of America.

We’d hope to carry out a lithium battery on this cycle simply primarily based on the worth we ship to shoppers, notably in issues like digital, et cetera. But for now, I feel that is an affordable assumption. It’s troublesome to venture out first 100 versus second 100. I imply I might think about for the primary couple of tons of, it is going to be fairly — I might hope, fairly secure. But in some unspecified time in the future, while you assume deposit foundation would drift larger, we’ll clearly have the ability to provide you with steerage on that sooner or later primarily based on what we’re truly seeing.

Erika Najarian

Got it. And I simply needed to make clear one thing, Brian, that you simply stated to Betsy. Did you say that you simply count on 2023 bills to be between $59 billion and $60 billion after which for modest progress to return in 2024?

Brian Moynihan

No. We stated 2022 is flat to 2021, after which develop modestly then.

Erika Najarian

Got it. Okay. Got it. And then the follow-up query there’s, you talked about your trajectory — your goal for getting again to 60% on the effectivity ratio. What sort of timeframe are you considering by way of when you possibly can accomplish that relative to the ahead curve?

Brian Moynihan

So I feel that — we made progress every quarter mainly. We’re across the 66%, we’re down year-over-year. I feel if I gave you the particular quarter, we crossed over mainly to the earnings projection for the remainder of the quarter. So Erika, I feel simply as you take a look at the companies, you are beginning to see them drop extra in line. Obviously, we all the time have such an enormous Wealth Management enterprise, which 27% pre-tax margin which is industry-leading, it was up 30% final quarter, will affect that as a result of it is a larger a part of our enterprise than others, however you will see relentless progress, however I can not give the precise quarter.

Erika Najarian

Got it. And only one final query on capital. So as we speak, your present CET1 minimal is 9.5%. And the upper G-SIB surcharge, when is that — is that efficient by January 1, 2023, so due to this fact, your minimal goes up by 50 foundation factors? And Brian, what — how are you considering of buffers relative to your new minimums? I feel considered one of your counterparts stated that he was not considering of buffers upon buffers as he thinks of capital administration going ahead.

Alastair Borthwick

So Erika, our G-SIB minimal would improve efficient January 1, 2024. So we have seven quarters to construct in direction of that. Brian talked about working and managing the corporate 75 to 100 foundation factors above our regulatory minimal. That’s clearly precisely the place we’re proper now. And so over the course of the subsequent seven quarters, we simply count on to construct that fifty foundation factors of capital.

Erika Najarian

Got it. Thank you.


We’ll go now to Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Ken Usdin

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just needed to have a look at the business facet of loans. Fourth quarter mortgage progress ex-PPP was nice at 10. And this quarter somewhat slower. Just needed to ask you about simply that finish demand query, any provide chain, any interchanges in line utilization? And simply what are you seeing on the market on the business demand facet? Thanks.

Alastair Borthwick

Well, our shoppers are undoubtedly seeing provide chain challenges. They’re working by way of admirably. We’ve additionally seen inflation, and we’re seeing labor and wage strain. So that, I feel everyone knows. At the identical time, the financial system is returning extra in direction of regular, and our line utilization is returning extra in direction of regular too. That’s part of what’s driving our loans progress. So, revolver utilization in business now in banking is 31.7%. Pre-pandemic are regular, was round 35%. So, that is about 3.3%. Figure that is like $15 billion to $20 billion of loans potential because the financial system continues to heal and as shoppers start to take utilization again. So, it is one of many causes we’re nonetheless snug with loans progress, and we see the identical momentum that we’ve got over the course of the previous 12 months.

Brian Moynihan

Important within the small enterprise space, originations are sturdy and again previous pre-pandemic ranges of quarterly originations and also you’re seeing house fairness come again up although mortgage will fall off. I feel pre-pandemic, we did $3 billion. So, we’ve got a room on the patron facet and on the business facet for additional mortgage progress because the — as individuals type of normalize their behaviors and actions. And now you all learn concerning the automobile {industry}, the road makes use of a automobile. Car auto sellers is actually low and it is simply, for instance, they can not maintain sufficient stock on the road.

Ken Usdin

Got it. And one follow-up on the payment facet. I do know funding banking and buying and selling are going to be arduous to forecast. But simply any ideas on a number of the consumer-related and brokers-weighted payment areas? There’s been some underlying transferring elements there. Just are you able to discuss simply the expansion trajectory of a few of these payment areas? And I suppose, we’ll simply sort of go away the IB buying and selling, so we’ll see what occurs within the markets.

Brian Moynihan

Yes. Well, I feel we’re sensible to try this. When it involves the cardboard facet, I’d say, flattish. We’re managing to the overall consumer relationship there. That stays one thing that we’re centered on whole we’ll see some progress there. We’ll see it in balances. We’ll see it in NII principally, and we’ll see it intimately in elsewhere.

On the asset administration facet, principally it is going to be round market ranges. So, we’ll observe that, as you’ll, intently. And somewhat little bit of web new family progress and flows progress once more this 12 months. So, that is how we’re fascinated with it. But I might say throughout all sort of flattish barely, possibly barely up.

The just one factor to keep in mind is simply as a reminder, on inadequate funds and overdraft. Just keep in mind that those who began to kick in in February, and the rest will go by way of in March. So that is in all probability like — sorry, May, and that is in all probability a $750 million hit for the 12 months, in the event you like, on whole charges.

Ken Usdin

Yes. Thank you, Brian and thanks Alastair.


We’ll go now to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Steven Chubak

Hi, good morning. Wanted to ask a follow-up on the sooner dialogue on the 60% effectivity ratio. If we take a look at what you achieved final cycle, your terminal effectivity trajected nearer to the higher 50s as soon as the Fed funds charge eclipse 200 foundation factors. And wish to get a way whether or not there is a credible case for delivering a better-than-60% effectivity ratio this cycle, or there’s structural components supporting the next terminal effectivity on this coming cycle?

Brian Moynihan

Steven, the dynamics goes to be how large the wealth administration enterprise sits as a share of the overall and simply the dynamic set enterprise. And that is all the time what constrained it even to the remainder of the companies. If I bear in mind, a peak cycle, each Global Banking went well-below 50, Consumer went effectively beneath 50 after which between markets and Wealth Management. Now Wealth Management has carried out a terrific job of rising its loans and deposits, so that can assist it. But that is all the time going to be the controversy, and you ought to be cheering for sturdy Wealth Management revenues even when it means rather less effectivity ratio.

Steven Chubak

Yeah. We’ll definitely be cheering for that, Brian. Maybe only for my follow-up on capital. I do know we have spent quite a lot of time speaking about AOCI volatility and the like. We’re all the time hoping to get a greater sense of on condition that RWA progress has truly been the most important supply of capital consumption during the last couple of quarters, it is up about 9% year-on-year. Just given the tempo of continued sturdy mortgage progress that is anticipated, what stage of natural RWA progress ought to we be underwriting as we take into consideration the capital algorithm going ahead?

Alastair Borthwick

Well, I feel what you are seeking to is a number of the RWA progress has been coming from a reasonably important loans rebound, notably in business. And I feel you are taking a look at a number of the investments we made in our Global Markets enterprise. Some of that is somewhat seasonal, so it pops up in Q1. And a few of it’s year-over-year.

So going ahead, I feel our progress — will loads of capital to assist the expansion that we count on by way of RWAs. We handle that fairly intently. Again, the financial system is starting to return now to one thing extra regular after bouncing round a bunch. So this quarter, when you consider these risk-weighted belongings, 14 foundation factors. Brian’s talked about one-third, one-third, one-third for share repurchase, dividend and progress. And that is in all probability a good start line.

Steven Chubak

That’s nice coloration. Thanks for taking my questions.


Our subsequent query comes from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Vivek Juneja

Thanks for taking my query. A pair. What are you — I heard the commentary about deposit balances, Brian, from you that they are nonetheless very excessive within the lower-end clients. However, if we begin to get somewhat extra granular, extra very just lately, are you beginning to see any drawdown with larger spending due to inflation? Any coloration on that? I do know quarter-over-quarter, they’re. But as we begin to sit up for see how issues are progressing, are we seeing that but?

Brian Moynihan

It’s truly the other of that. They grew sooner from February to March, and that is in all probability due to the tax returns that they’ve. But mainly, the broad means to consider it’s starting round May of final 12 months, they grew 1%, not annualized, however 1% monthly, fairly persistently 1% to 2% larger on the decrease finish balances.

Only within the month of November, I feel we noticed a slight down draft within the decrease finish balances, and that picked again up in December, grew January, February, March, every month. It grew this quarter, and the March month was the strongest. So we would — we have not seen the info for April but, nevertheless it’s rising very sturdy, all the best way up into the individuals who carried pre-pandemic at $10,000 to $20,000, our balances are nonetheless rising in very strongly. So we’re not seeing that deteriorate in any respect but.

Vivek Juneja

And a very completely different query for you, of us. Securities progress, did not see that this quarter even in the event you ex out the mark-to-market stuff. What’s your plan for that? Are you planning to develop securities balances? Should we be — or what are you considering at this level?

Brian Moynihan

It all comes all the way down to deposits. We continue to grow deposits, we bought to place it to work. So Alastair may give you extra element. But you bear in mind what drives the dimensions of our stability sheet, so our right-hand facet, not our left. And so at $2 trillion — we grew $200 billion — or $180 billion, $190 billion deposits final 12 months first quarter, this 12 months first quarter. So, if we develop our deposits, which you ought to be cheering for on the core foundation, we do, we are going to then make investments these deposits in a cautious means.

Alastair Borthwick

And Vivek, in the event you take a look at this quarter, we added $8 billion of deposits. We added $14 billion of loans. That’s all the time going to be our first alternative by way of funding. The securities balances got here down somewhat bit, $13 billion. And bear in mind, in the event you return over the course of the previous couple of years, within the pandemic, we did not see the loans progress. So, in lots of ways in which’s one, we bought some securities at which to exchange loans that have been coming off. That’s not what we’re seeing there. Now we’re seeing the loans progress. So, our first years will all the time be for loans. And if we maintain seeing the identical sort of mortgage progress we’re seeing proper now, the securities might decline extra time they keep flat, we’ll see, will depend on deposits.

Vivek Juneja

And how about by way of liquid belongings? What stage ought to we expect – ought to we count on, you’ll deliver that all the way down to? Because these have come down somewhat bit while you take a look at them quarter-over-quarter, they usually’re additionally down some year-over-year. Is there room for that to return down additional? What type of a run charge for that assuming, let’s assume deposits have been flat and did not go down, did not develop a lot modestly right here, the place can that be drawn all the way down to?

Alastair Borthwick

Yes. So liquidity is down within the quarter. That’s largely primarily based on funding the Global Markets enterprise with seasonal. If you look year-over-year at our liquidity numbers, you will see our world liquidity sources of $1.1 billion. They’re up like a scutch from Q1 of final 12 months. HQLA surplus is up. That’s largely primarily based on issues like – once more, Brian talks about our deposits at $2 trillion. We have — we’re in all probability extra liquid now than we have ever been. And we have lots, I feel, as we proceed to develop deposits sooner or later. I hope our liquidity simply continues to remain the place it’s or go larger.

Vivek Juneja

Thank you.


And we’ll take a follow-up from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Mike Mayo

Hi. I used to be somewhat disillusioned concerning the query associated to terminal effectivity. I get, if you wish to modify Wealth Management. But with all of the know-how investments, should not your incremental pretax margins be larger in your new revenues? And in that case, should not your terminal effectivity, enterprise combine adjusted to be higher than it was earlier than? For instance, particularly, your pretax margin in 2021 was 38%. Where ought to your pretax margins be on new revenues which are generated forward?

Brian Moynihan

The new revenues will generate extra margin revenue, Mike. And the effectivity ratio, let’s all the time see the place we get to, however it can maintain coming down and we’re bettering each – during into the pandemic and with working leverage each quarter. And I feel it isn’t going again and checking it quarter-by-quarter. I feel it improved each quarter. It leaves apart some seasonality. But sure, we are going to maintain driving it down.

Headcount, if this quarter was down one other 100 individuals, it was down 4,000 final 12 months. We are including salespeople. We’re opening new branches. We’re investing in franchise. We’ve opened within the 7, 8, 10 markets and we’ve got $30 billion of recent deposits in these branches to provide you a way and there is solely 140 branches. You know our technique, Mike. So, it is all the time going to return all the way down to balancing all that.

But on the finish of the day, we’re saying bills are flat this 12 months and NII enchancment goes to move to the underside line. That’s a reasonably sturdy affect to effectivity, particularly as a result of it is going by way of the companies, even the wealth administration enterprise.

Mike Mayo

And then, one different follow-up. I imply, I do not assume there is a recession this 12 months, however I’ve been fallacious earlier than. And the inventory market is telling us there is likely to be a reasonably good likelihood of a recession. So Brian and Alastair, what do you’re taking the prospect of recession is in 2022?

You have much more individuals, knowledge, companies, perception into the US financial system, and it’s essential have a share for that to your provision for mortgage losses. So is that this 50% likelihood? 20% change? What do you assume, Brian, sort of intestine really feel and Alastair, by the numbers?

Brian Moynihan

I feel, you are a good critic of and observer of banks, Mike, however the actuality is, we’ve got economists predict recessions and all of the outages about them. But the — and the fact is, they all the time have a prediction for recession that runs round 10%, 20% in response to economists exercise.

But let me flip to what you actually stated, which is, we weighted the antagonistic situation issue at a 40% think about our baseline reserve setting. That produced a formulaic reserve, which is round 40% of our whole reserves. And so, we’ve got reserves on high of that foundation for powerful occasions.

So I’m not going to talk a field with you about gentle touchdown, arduous touchdown and all that stuff. But the fact is, they have to take the inflation out of system. They know that. The rising charges do this. But there’s tensions in opposition to how straightforward or arduous that’s going to be, clearly, pandemic, warfare, but additionally this difficulty that the huge quantity of stimulus remains to be on the market being spent.

So we’re braced for each situation. We mannequin each situation, however we do not — I do not put a particular share. I simply — that is any person else’s job to try this, however our economists do not need a recession predicted by way of this 12 months, it is round 3% progress, subsequent 12 months, somewhat over 2%. And although there could also be some quarters that might present modest progress, I feel they’re all constructive, so I bought it proper.

Mike Mayo

Understood. Thank you.


Our subsequent query comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Your line is open.

Gerard Cassidy

Hi, Brian. Hi, Alastair.

Brian Moynihan

Gerard, how are you?

Gerard Cassidy

Good. Thanks. Alistair, you guys are very effectively positioned, as you identified, to your stability sheet for rising rates of interest, which appears very, very possible this 12 months, clearly. And clearly, you guys will not be a PT boat, however a battle crew — battleship to show the stability sheet right into a place and when the Fed lastly succeeds, for example, in hitting inflation, knocking it down they usually cease elevating charges, possibly you going to have to chop charges get the financial system going. When do you guys begin fascinated with after the Fed succeeds at decreasing inflation, and you’ll have to reposition the stability sheet and never being as asset delicate?

Brian Moynihan

We do not. Well, Gerard, simply to start out, we — mainly, you recognize this in addition to anyone having been round this {industry} for quite a lot of years, let’s simply say. At the tip of the day, the explanation why we’ve got securities investments is as a result of we’ve got $2 trillion of deposits and $1 trillion of loans.

And so we bought to do one thing with the cash and that deposits are secure. They’re core checking accounts. They’re your core working money for business clients. So we put it to work to extract the worth for the shareholders.

And so, it isn’t that we lean the stability sheet. It’s as we do all of the work we do within the core franchise to develop the variety of clients, 10% or 15% since pre-pandemic, and core shopper checking clients, to develop the business buyer base, small enterprise base, et cetera, that leads to us having a stability sheet that’s positioned to learn in rising charges as a result of we’ve got a lot zero price deposits. And so we do not sit there and say, let’s transfer the stability sheet. What we do is we attempt to defend in a cautious means all of the dangers. So we hedge the couple — a 12 months or so, 1.5 years in the past. There have been quite a lot of questions on, oh, my gosh, you are investing and charges are low. And we advised individuals we hedge it, and now you are seeing the advantages of these hedges. That gave us NII from then till now to guard the capital, and that is what we did.

So we’re all the time making an attempt to handle extracting the worth deposits, give after which look to the opposite facet and see the capital constraint query and the affect of capital, see different constraints on us. But it is actually — and we solely spend money on treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. We do not take a credit score threat and supplies within the treasury e-book for lack of a greater time period as a result of we take sufficient of the tip firm. So I simply do not — we do not sit there and say, ‘Let’s transfer round.’ It’s simply how can we make investments this and we might transfer somewhat shorter or longer on what we spend money on. But frankly, we swapped quite a lot of it to quick simply to guard ourselves in order that we would be able to redeploy to larger charges sooner or later.

Gerard Cassidy

Very good. And then as a follow-up, on the G-SIB buffer that you simply guys moved out that can take impact, I feel you stated, in 2024, the 50 foundation level improve. Is there any methods you possibly can make use of that would truly scale back that buffer earlier than we get there, or is it actually simply retaining extra earnings out of your – to your day-to-day operations?

Brian Moynihan

I feel. We’re rising by way of it as a result of it has methods it is calculated that aren’t delicate to our measurement, relative to the financial system, inventory worth, all these sorts of issues in it that transfer it round somewhat bit, however the actuality is that would not — once we take a look at the core buyer base, we would not constrain core buyer progress. We can all the time make efficiencies and transfer stuff round, and we noticed — consider it or not, as you possibly can see within the different class of loans, which in that quarter, our franchise nonetheless left over, frankly, from 15, 17 years in the past or have that was that we are able to let run off and stuff like that or promote out and stuff. But the fact is that the G-SIB buffer is rising as a result of our buyer franchise is getting larger in a technique of calculation doesn’t modify for enterprise success, measurement of financial system, inventory market cap improve, all these issues, which I feel you may have a reasonably good favor of, Gerard.

So we will need to retain 50 foundation factors extra capital. So divide that fifty foundation factors by seven quarters and take into consideration us pulling that by way of. The query of buffers to that quantity, sure, you need to count on us to function nearer to that 10.75% simply because, frankly, the quantity is getting so large that we have by no means had a difficulty of the dimensions of capital implied by that buffer to the minimal regulatory minimal.

Gerard Cassidy

Very good, gents. Thank you. Yes, go forward.

Brian Moynihan

And that capital – because the incomes type of the franchise generated 15.5% return on tangible widespread fairness this quarter, and we’ll proceed to go up — proceed to be sturdy primarily based on NII enchancment.

Gerard Cassidy

Thank you. Appreciate it.


We’ll take our ultimate query from Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Chris Kotowski

Yes. Good morning. Thank you. Recognizing that the held-to-maturity portfolio would not get mark-to-market, I might assume, although, on a sort of underlying core financial foundation, it is by no means enjoyable to have a big bond portfolio that is underwater. And simply taking a look at your year-end disclosures, it seems to be just like the overwhelming majority of that held-to-maturity portfolio is companies with a greater than 10-year maturity. And I suppose, how do you take a look at the extension threat on that portfolio? Again, recognizing it isn’t marked, however economically, is there any strategy to defend your self in sort of a tail surroundings the place charges go up a few hundred foundation factors like they did in 1981 or–?

Alastair Borthwick

So, let me handle that one. I feel Brian’s earlier reply bought to the primary a part of it, which is we’re not curiosity merchants. We’re rate of interest managers to a cycle. We bought to ship for our shareholders in low charge environments, and we’ve got to ship for them in excessive charge environments. Those mortgages protected us in a low-rate surroundings.

And now what protects us in a rising charge surroundings is exactly the asset sensitivity we nonetheless have left within the firm. And so while you take a look at that $1.4 billion of progress, and now we’re telling you, you need to count on NII progress from right here successively in every quarter, that is what protects us. It’s that stability between capital, earnings, and liquidity.

Brian Moynihan

And simply the money move of the portfolio, even in a really low prepayment charge situation, you bought to recollect individuals pay principal curiosity, individuals go away after which individuals transfer regardless of mortgage charges refinancing. And these numbers, all that money could be redeployed on the larger charge construction. So, it turns somewhat sooner than individuals assume as a result of everyone takes to zero prepayments, however the money move off of it’s pretty important. So, we’ll redeploy that and stroll again up the ladder.

But — and likewise bear in mind, economically, if we do not market deposit, this is without doubt one of the nice debates we have all had it not for accounting for banks. But the tip of the day, the deposits are rising economically at a a lot sooner charge than the degradation on the mortgage-backed portfolio.

Chris Kotowski

Okay. All righty. Thank you.

Brian Moynihan

I feel that is all our questions. Thank you for becoming a member of us once more this quarter. It’s a powerful quarter by the crew and I wish to thank the crew for all the good work they’ve carried out. At the tip of the day, as we advised you final quarter and some quarters earlier than that, the natural progress machine in Bank of America is driving arduous, rising its market share, rising its deposits, rising its loans, and doing effectively available in the market.

We will speed up the P&L from that progress with the upper charges, as we advised you. We’ll proceed to carry bills in examine, driving working leverage, and that can all the time be a spotlight to get probably the most environment friendly progress we are able to. The sturdy buyer exercise, which we spoke about, continues even within the first a part of April right here. And so that might find yourself drive — it is good for our firm to drive our earnings. So, thanks. We sit up for speaking to you subsequent time.


This does conclude as we speak’s program. Thank you to your participation. You might disconnect at any time.

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