IEA trims international oil demand forecast on China weak point

The International Energy Agency has lowered its international oil demand forecast due to surging coronavirus circumstances in China and weaker than anticipated demand within the US and different developed nations.

The power watchdog now expects demand to common 99.4mn barrels a day this yr, down from its earlier estimate of 99.7mn b/d in March.

“The stringent lockdowns in China have led us to further revise down our estimate for oil demand in the second quarter and for the year as a whole,” the Paris-based group mentioned in its month-to-month oil market report on Wednesday.

“In addition, more complete demand data for the first quarter of 2022, especially in the US, was sharply lower than preliminary estimates.”

The oil market has been extraordinarily unstable since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Prices whipsawed on issues over falling Russian provides and big inventory releases by giant energy-consuming nations, together with the US.

Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark, final month hit nearly $140 a barrel in frenzied buying and selling because the market tried to evaluate the affect of the struggle on Russia’s huge oil business. It then pulled again because the US and different IEA member nations introduced plans to launch 240mn barrels from their strategic reserves over the subsequent six months.

Brent fell beneath $100 a barrel on Monday however then rebounded and was buying and selling at $105 on Wednesday.

The IEA expects Russian oil provide to fall by 1.5mn b/d in April and forecasts as much as 3mn b/d might be offline from May on account of “international sanctions and as the impact of a widening customer-driven embargo comes into full force”.

The IEA says weaker demand, the large inventory launch introduced by its members and regular output from Opec and its allies ought to stop a “sharp deficit” from growing within the oil market regardless of the discount in Russian provide. However, it warned that the outlook was “mired in uncertainty”.

“The IEA’s latest stock release thus provides a crucial buffer to oil markets and much needed relief to consuming countries,” it mentioned.

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