Key Trends Coming Out Of Q1 2022

Cannabis Industry And Investments Exploding In Profits Concept High Quality

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With Q1/22 full, we spotlight 4 key traits for US hashish from the quarter that we consider buyers must be targeted on. Overall, we stay bullish in the marketplace in each the brief and long run and proceed to consider US hashish shares are too low-cost and can supply vital upsized returns for buyers in time.

The Q1/22 traits highlighted are: earnings weak spot and issues over the more difficult macro setting, on-going business consolidation notably amongst public operators, our pessimistic outlook for federal laws passage and the outperformance in inventory returns for smaller and medium sized operators. Regarding the ultimate level, Q1/21 marked a big change from prior durations whereby inventory returns have historically all the time favored the biggest MSOs in distinction to conventional investing fundamentals. While inventory returns have been down general in Q1, the shares of smaller and medium sized operators outperformed considerably on a relative foundation highlighting the truth that buyers are starting to raised perceive the favorable positions and discounted relative valuations for shares in these classes and that M&A is an element that should be thought-about.

With our protection, we now have to-date targeted on underappreciated smaller and medium sized operators and for Q1/22 funding in a portfolio of Viridian coated shares would had pushed a modest optimistic return (equating to a >7% outperformance to the typical of the broader group and ~15% versus the ten greatest MSOs).

We anticipate the outperformance in returns for smaller and medium sized operators to proceed on additional investor consciousness, the execution of extra targeted growth initiatives and as these corporations stay the targets of consolidation. Finally, we spotlight our high 5 picks for close to time period funding. Amongst our protection the highest picks are: Harborside (OTCQX:HBORF), Jushi (OTCQX:JUSHF), Lowell Farms (OTCQX:LOWLF), Planet 13 (OTCQX:PLNHF) and Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ) whereas exterior our protection we most favor: Ascend, Glasshouse and Unrivaled. We consider every can supply significant upside at a time when optimistic returns might stay elusive.

Short-Term Weakness Should Not Overshadow Favorable Long Term

Opportunity COVID pushed tailwinds inclusive of a extra attentive buyer base and stimulus checks which boosted ends in 2020 and early ’21 have largely subsided making operations for US hashish corporations more difficult in current months. This fall earnings studies mirrored this as outcomes for many underperformed expectations whereas for this 12 months corporations guided to a considerably weaker than anticipated 2022. This fall underperformance stemmed from wholesale pricing stress throughout key markets (with Massachusetts specifically changing into a brand new problem for operators), slowed Y/Y progress in demand within the absence of recent state openings and in lots of circumstances rising pains with the mixing of acquired property and growth. By most accounts, pricing stress and slower than anticipated demand (albeit nonetheless up) continued in Q1/22 whereas outcomes for a lot of for the rest of this 12 months may also be impacted by delayed market openings and expansions (notably Illinois, New Jersey and New York on the rec aspect and Virginia for medical).

We consider issues over the near-term headwinds are overblown and must be outweighed by the actually optimistic long-term outlook for the area and firms inside it. In most states current slowed progress charges stem from more difficult comparisons on COVID inflated outcomes and new state openings in comparative durations. We are assured that progress will once more speed up as comps normalize starting within the present quarter. This together with execution by corporations with expanded grows and manufacturing capability may also ease among the present pricing stress that has challenged current outcomes.

Beyond the instant time period, there are nonetheless many significant catalysts forward to drive robust progress in 2023 and past together with the launch of recent rec markets in main populated states. Meanwhile we consider execution on main growth initiatives will come for corporations inside present markets as time progresses. Execution will lead to scaled revenues, enhanced profitability and vital money technology for operators. We are assured that scaled operations would be the catalyst to deliver larger investor curiosity and lift valuations in time. At some level quickly, whether or not laws happens or not, US hashish corporations will probably be simply too large (and worthwhile) to disregard by buyers.

Consolidation is Happening and Can Drive Outperforming Investor Returns

Q1/22 introduced extra large-scale M&A offers in US hashish with the current $2B Cresco acquisition of Columbia Care and the Verano takeout of Goodness Growth (valued at $413M) highlighting the pattern of enormous scale public to public M&A within the area. Including beforehand closed offers just like the Harvest sale to Trulieve and Liberty Health’s acquisition by AYR, a significant portion of the reputable US hashish names from late 2020 have now been acquired. Outside of the general public world, significant consolidation amongst essential and established operators has additionally occurred with Pharmacann’s current acquisition of LivWell and Riv Capital’s $250M acquisition of Etain Health (and its vertically built-in New York license) representing two of an important current transactions. Importantly along with introduced offers, GAGE’s takeout by TerrAscend (OTCQX:TRSSF) and Next Green Wave’s (OTCQX:NXGWF) acquisition by Planet 13 have been accomplished and in a comparatively well timed method proving that regulators will probably be accepting of consolidation.

Each of the current massive public transactions was totally funded with fairness with the vendor taking their operational danger and execution burden off the desk whereas sustaining the long-term upside that the market presents given low-cost valuations for all. As we now have beforehand talked about, it helps with the M&A pattern that the majority corporations are run by former buyers and bankers so the funding mind-set is intrinsically understood and the idea of taking execution burden off desk by means of sell-out is welcomed. We anticipate the consolidation pattern amongst public corporations will proceed and even speed up within the close to time period notably as pessimism relating to the passage of SAFE banking grows. A passage of SAFE is assumed to offer all within the area with an instantaneous catalyst for upsized inventory valuations.

As we now have beforehand talked about, we consider all however the greatest names in US hashish are very a lot in play to be acquired.

For consumers, we consider the motivation for transactions is scale and an curiosity in being positioned on the high of any comparative itemizing of operators (whether or not that be the variety of states uncovered to, market cap, income or reported EBITDA) as a way to drive larger institutional funding within the close to time period (amongst these that may and can put money into the area) or to be finest positioned for a put up laws world every time that comes. The current Cresco/Columbia Care transaction announcement exemplifies this pattern. The two took an absolute conservative strategy to valuation within the deal and actually made Cresco out to pay an inflated a number of within the transaction in our view for the aim of asserting that put up deal the mixture would be the largest operator within the area by market cap.

With the expectation that consolidation will proceed, we proceed to favor small and medium sized operators in US hashish which have stable companies on their very own which might present long run progress, money technology and earnings however are additionally viable takeout candidates. For us, the more than likely takeout candidates are operators with a number one place with in a particular state (or few states) that may be complimentary to the buying firm’s present operations. Importantly, as confirmed with the Cresco and Columbia transaction, state publicity redundancies don’t rule out consolidation even when these redundancies are in capped states. In reality, the redundancies (whether or not licenses or operations) can truly show to be useful as offering further capital by means of sale sooner or later and in essence scale back the said worth.

In phrases of subsequent corporations to be acquired, we consider 4Front, Ascend, Ayr, Jushi and Terrascend could possibly be in play amongst conventional second tier sized MSOs given their measurement and engaging positions in a number of particular markets which might be a pleasant praise to bigger operators. We additionally foresee a doable merger of equals amongst these operators or the significant acquisition by any of a smaller participant as a way to scale operations and stay within the class of greatest operators within the area. Amongst extra restricted state operators, we proceed to anticipate Planet 13 is a possible takeout given the truth that the corporate’s Las Vegas Superstore could be as engaging as any asset an buying may discover within the area whereas growth state alternatives are nonetheless in improvement and thus might not be price it for administration. Additionally, inside our protection amongst smaller operators, we consider Cansortium (OTCQX:CNTMF), Greenrose (OTC:GNRS), Schwazze and Vext (OTCQX:VEXTF) could possibly be targets given their discounted valuations and main positions in Florida, Connecticut, Colorado (and New Mexico) and Arizona, respectively.

Finally, we proceed to consider California represents the final word untapped marketplace for consolidation and anticipate M&A within the state to return within the close to time period. No longer ought to MSOs keep away from California because the legislative setting seems to be on a path towards changing into extra accommodating whereas pricing pressures are easing considerably on easy attrition following such a difficult 2021 for smaller underfunded operators within the state. Meanwhile, in some unspecified time in the future the potential TAM is simply too large to disregard.

Given scaled positions and low-cost valuations, any potential California takeout is more likely to embrace: Glass House (OTC:GLASF), Harborside, Lowell Farms, the Parent Company, Unrivaled (OTCQX:UNRV) or Vibe (OTCPK:VIBEF). Of present California uncovered corporations, we observe that we additionally anticipate 4Front (OTCQX:FFNTF), Glass House, Harborside and Planet 13 may also themselves be acquirers of among the smaller operators within the area.

Recent Public to Public M&A Transactions ($ Acquisition Value and Announced Date)

Viridian Cannabis Deal Tracker, Company Reports

Federal Legislation Unlikely this Year, and That’s Ok

There have been many headlines out of Washington in Q1 relating to federal laws and that continued on Friday (4/1) with studies that the MORE Act had as soon as once more handed in Congress. As has been the case with different legislative measures which have not too long ago handed the House, the MORE Act will doubtless once more stall within the Senate whether it is heard in any respect this 12 months.

We anticipate additional information will come within the coming weeks as Chuck Schumer places out his lengthy awaited full federal laws proposal later this month. As has been the case for the previous few years, with every significant information merchandise, hashish shares pop on optimism that permitted institutional funding will include laws and finally will drive upside within the shares.

Unfortunately, we consider the thrill and optimism is misguided and stay pessimistic that something will get carried out this 12 months by way of laws on the federal stage. As we now have beforehand said, in our view the more than likely path to laws this 12 months is for Mr. Schumer to place out his wide-ranging proposal later this month, make the rounds with that understanding full-well {that a} passage is not going to happen earlier than finally championing piece-meal legislative progress within the type of banking both by itself or by means of the attachment onto one other measure. Regarding full laws passage, Mr. Schumer doesn’t have the requisite 10 Republican votes to make sure passage notably if there are any social fairness elements hooked up which is a pre-requisite to garnering progressive Democrat assist. While the situation described stays doable even in a mid-term 12 months like 2022 nevertheless we consider the on-going battle in Russia and the related influence on the financial system is more likely to make that much more difficult and finally too troublesome to get carried out. Specifically, we anticipate the attachment of hashish banking language to a 2023 Defense Spending Bill, which may allow passage, turns into considerably harder politically given protection associated issues and we additionally anticipate that Congress and the Senate might have larger issues which carry a number of debate and would show to be a distraction to hashish laws passage as we get later within the 12 months resembling potential stimulus measures to ease gasoline worth challenges.

While an absence of federal laws could be an enormous disappointment for the business, notably because the timing outlook for passage turns into extra unsure if the Republican occasion takes over the House and/or the Senate within the Mid-terms, nevertheless we warning that not all is misplaced. While it will likely be an unlikely precedence within the instant days of a celebration change, we don’t rule out Republicans pushing and passing a paled down banking particular measure in 2023 or 2024 (equally to Rep Mace’s proposal from final 12 months) as a method of stealing the Democrats thunder forward of the 2024 cycle. A paled-down banking measure with out social fairness elements may permit for a extra stream lined integration/implementation and nonetheless would drive the institutional funding that buyers are eager for. Meanwhile, as beforehand famous, we proceed to consider that with execution and a scaling of outcomes institutional buyers will discover a method into the area with or with out laws. At some level the size, coupled with low-cost valuations will probably be too large to disregard.

Small and Medium Plays on the Space are Outperforming

In US hashish, the most important MSOs garner probably the most consideration and generate the highest inventory returns. We have and proceed to spotlight our perception that this efficiency correlation to market cap is misguided as many smaller well-positioned operators had extra engaging fundamentals and future progress alternatives however never-the-less had discounted valuations. The indisputable fact that US hashish stays a state by state enterprise makes the valuation low cost for smaller operators extra interesting because it mustn’t matter how broad unfold any firm’s operations are throughout the nation if they don’t seem to be a frontrunner in particular states. Scale doesn’t essentially equate to successful (whether or not that be by means of profitability or money technology). Furthermore, we consider that improved capital entry for all around the previous 12 months has levelled the enjoying area whereas on-going consolidation must also profit smaller and medium sized shares as these corporations usually tend to be acquired.

The historic return pattern didn’t happen in Q1 with medium and smaller sized operators outperforming considerably throughout the interval. This doubtless stemmed from larger consciousness amongst buyers, outperforming execution by some small and medium sized operators and the notion of shares changing into acquisition targets. Based on common inventory returns, the general US hashish market declined by 7% in Q1 with the shares of the ten largest MSOs declining by 15%. Meanwhile shares for the subsequent ten largest operators declined by 2%. The shares of the remaining smaller names declined by 5%. Viridian fairness analysis protection has to-date targeted on neglected/under-followed shares within the area that we felt deserved larger consideration from buyers primarily based on the standard of operations and progress alternative forward. Today, the protection consists of fourteen coated that fall primarily within the second tier and smaller market cap classes. A portfolio of coated names for Q1/22 would have generated a optimistic 0.14% return.

We proceed to favor these small and medium sized operators for a similar causes listed above and anticipate this outperformance pattern to proceed because the 12 months progresses.

Q1/22 Top Stock Returns by Market Cap

*Green Denotes Covered Company (Viridian Cannabis Deal Tracker, Factset)

Q1/22 Top Stock Returners US Cannabis

*Green Denotes Covered Company (Viridian Cannabis Deal Tracker, Factset)

Top Picks for Near-Term Investment

As beforehand said, we don’t anticipate laws to offer a catalyst for enhanced inventory returns within the close to time period and whereas we’re assured that positive aspects for the area can come as corporations execute and return to excessive progress mode later this 12 months, we consider the pressured returns of Q1/22 will proceed within the coming months. With that in thoughts, our high picks for close to time period funding are shares of corporations that may take share within the coming durations, that may be the beneficiaries of looming laws information and/or which might be in play to be acquired. Within our protection this line of pondering makes Harborside, Jushi, Lowell Farms, Planet 13 and Schwazze our high picks for close to time period funding whereas past our protection, we favor Ascend, Glasshouse and Unrivaled. Ascend (OTCQX:AAWH) was one of many worst performing shares in Q1/22 on the influence of the MedMen (OTCQB:MMNFF) litigation information. We consider that response was overblown notably as we finally consider on-going litigation will finish in favor of the corporate. Even with out that, we anticipate favorable alternatives in different markets (particularly Massachusetts and New Jersey) will drive outperforming ends in the close to time period. Meanwhile we consider each Glasshouse and Unrivaled are underappreciated California operators that can garner larger credit score within the close to time period as market circumstances enhance and as exterior operators take a larger curiosity within the state within the close to time period.

We consider shares for every of those corporations might be significant outperformers in Q2.

We observe that past the close to time period, Ayr (OTCQX:AYRWF) stays one among our high picks as we anticipate execution on excellent growth initiatives positions the corporate in addition to every other operator whereas the relative low cost in valuation presents the chance for disproportionate upside within the inventory. We additionally anticipate further growth initiatives are forthcoming and consider Ayr is a possible prime candidate to finally purchase Columbia Care’s redundant New York license which would offer a high incremental progress alternative for the corporate.

Top near-term picks amongst coated names:


Harborside was Q1/22’s high returning inventory and we anticipate additional outperformance to return as buyers acquire larger consciousness for the corporate’s scaled place in California and bettering aggressive market circumstances within the state. We anticipate Harborside’s growth initiatives will translate to robust progress on each the highest and backside strains whereas finally, we consider Harborside is in play to be acquired as greater operators look to lastly enter the California market at scale. Harborside is the biggest public operator in California in the present day and any buying firm seeking to enter the state at scale must contemplate it for acquisition notably given Harborside’s nonetheless low-cost valuation. In reality, we consider that place is a minimum of partially what has motivated among the firm’s current M&A initiatives which added each retail and cultivation property.


As we now have beforehand said, we consider Jushi is an underappreciated MSO regardless of having one of many high progress profiles within the area. We consider close to time period catalysts for larger consciousness may include information of legislative progress in both Pennsylvania or Virginia (for medical market growth) the place Jushi is as effectively positioned as every other operator. Furthermore, we anticipate further significant state growth for Jushi to return by means of acquisitions within the close to time period given the corporate’s background and capital place. In specific, we consider Jushi may look to accumulate among the redundant Cresco/Columbia Care property notably in Massachusetts or Florida. Finally, given its measurement and engaging place inside a number of key markets, we consider Jushi itself is in play to be acquired by one of many bigger operators given the on-going arms race within the business. The firm’s place in Pennsylvania and Virginia could be a pleasant praise to any bigger MSO with out a significant presence in these states.

Lowell Farms

Lowell has a number one model in California that has a following in further states and garnered early returns by means of a licensing settlement with Ascend in Illinois and Massachusetts. Due to continued pricing stress in California, the corporate stays unprofitable (administration is concentrating on a worthwhile adjusted EBITDA run fee inside Q2) and Lowell is now in a deadly capital place with an estimated money steadiness within the mid-single digit vary. In brief, Lowell wants further capital as a way to proceed and whereas we consider it’s obtainable given the corporate’s stable investor base, we anticipate the extra doubtless situation is a sale to a different operator for a premium to present ranges. In reality, we consider Lowell is the more than likely firm within the area to be acquired within the close to time period. For an buying firm, Lowell would offer a number one model to leverage in no matter markets it operates whereas additionally providing a hedge on California market circumstances bettering and/or eventual interstate gross sales at a low value (and with a path to close time period profitability within the state).

Planet 13

Planet 13 has been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 and diminished tourism ranges to Las Vegas and Orange County, CA. We consider the corporate is now positioned to discriminately profit from a return to extra regular tourism ranges within the coming months and we forecast robust progress from that and a return to increased margins on the firm’s Superstore. Additionally, we anticipate an upcoming lounge launch in Las Vegas will allow Planet 13 to additional showcase its model constructing capabilities and supply a brand new margin growth catalyst. Meanwhile, we consider growth initiatives in California and Florida can bear fruit within the close to time period and supply lengthy awaited secondary progress drivers for the corporate exterior of Nevada. In specific, we anticipate Florida will probably be a serious contributor to the enterprise in 2023 if the corporate goes by means of with growth initiatives. This is an element that up to now has largely been neglected by buyers. We additionally view Planet 13 as a possible takeout within the close to time period as we anticipate any massive MSO wish to add the Superstore asset and its constant >$100M annual income capabilities at a time when scale of outcomes is so essential. Furthermore, the Planet 13 model title would doubtless add worth for any dispensary asset in an organization’s portfolio whereas the corporate’s on-going state growth initiatives could possibly be complimentary to present operations for a would-be acquirer. For Planet 13, the motivation for a sale would doubtless be an curiosity in taking the growth danger off the desk whereas sustaining long-term upside on positive aspects within the area.


We consider Schwazze is a uncommon execution story in US hashish from 2021 as the corporate has shortly turn into one of many high (if not the highest) operators in Colorado and New Mexico. We are assured that the corporate’s on-going roll-up initiatives in Colorado will translate to robust high line progress and main profitability and we consider the corporate’s early presence in New Mexico will drive robust ends in the approaching quarters throughout the preliminary days of rec. We anticipate the scaling of outcomes will garner larger investor consciousness and lead to a discount of the corporate’s legacy discounted valuation within the close to time period.

US Cannabis Valuations

Viridian Capital Estimates, Priced Intraday 4/1/2022

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