L&T’s This fall outcomes print was negatively impacted by externalities on all three key fronts, with margin being hit probably the most. In such a context, L&T has carried out very nicely on order inflows. While inflationary surroundings would restrict restoration in margin, we envisage L&T to maintain wholesome double-digit development trajectory and money circulate technology. Investment in new age applied sciences/belongings over the following 5 years can be much like the funding in exhausting concession belongings, which L&T goals to exit over such a interval. We reduce SoTP by ~8% to Rs 2,025 and retain Buy.
Externalities impression outcomes; wholesome order backlog and money circulate technology enthuse: L&T reported a ten/2/9% y-o-y development in revenues/Ebitda/PAT for Q4FY22, assembly conservative consensus estimates and meaningfully lacking our estimates. While execution was impacted by supply-chain points and concentrate on money technology, margin was impacted by RM worth strain, deferment of declare settlement and mission combine. Order inflows received boosted by robust ordering from abroad, rising 54% y-o-y and will have been larger however for deferment of choose orders gained in This fall for need of buyer approval. Order backlog additionally grew a wholesome 9% and money technology was wholesome.
Guidance seems affordable given start line: L&T met FY22 steering on income development (up 15%) whereas lacking on margin (down ~110 bps versus flat steering) and order inflows (up 8% versus double-digit steering). Inflationary surroundings would restrict prospects of L&T protecting up for margin disappointment in FY2023 and L&T steering displays that. L&T has guided for a low-to-mid teenagers income development, fairly achievable given robust order backlog. Also be aware that ~98% of L&T’s order backlog is shifting nicely. It has additionally guided for a 12-15% development so as inflows. The start line is beneficial with authorities tender conversion ratio to orders being a low 50% in FY22 vs 70% in FY2021. This additionally displays in a five-year low quantum of home share of order backlog at 73%.
Concessions on their approach out; new enterprise investments deliberate of comparable quantum: L&T shared optimistic developments for the three concessions the place L&T has ~Rs 85-bn publicity (fairness+mortgage). L&T hinted at sale of the remaining highway belongings being a near-term occasion, adopted by sale of stake in Nabha. Hyderabad metro exit could take time however L&T expects its publicity to the asset (~Rs 55 bn) to begin coming down from present yr. It expects to make an funding of Rs 70-75 bn into new age inexperienced applied sciences over the following four-five years.
We scale back Fair Value by 8%, retain BUY at affordable 15X FY2023E core EPS valuations: We scale back our FV by ~8% to Rs 2,025 to account for 4-10% reduce in core E&C EPS and decrease worth of subsidiaries.