Sensex underperforms mid-, smallcaps; volatility to remain till weekly F&O expiry, Nifty support at 15750

Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and Nifty snapped the 6-day losing run, and ended the choppy session up nearly half a per cent on Monday. BSE Sensex ended 180 points or 0.34 per cent up at 52,974, while NSE Nifty 50 index was up 0.4 per cent or 60 points at 15,845. Index heavyweights such as Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank of India (SBI) contributed the most to the indices’ gain. Broader markets outperformed the equity frontliners. S&P BSE MidCap index jumped 1.5 per cent or 329 points to end at 22,145.10. S&P BSE SmallCap index was up 1.15 per cent or 290 points to settle at 25,606. Analysts say that the broader markets witnessed keen interest in companies likely to post good numbers during the first quarter of the current fiscal.

S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP Securities

Autos and banks helped benchmark indices stay in the green today as rising inflation and its impact on discretionary spending kept investors worried. The broader markets witnessed keen interest in companies likely to post good numbers during the first quarter of the current fiscal. Diagnostic and Pathology firms witnessed profit taking ahead of their Q4 earnings on the back of high competitive intensity.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

The recent spate of negative news have prompted investors to cut equity exposure. At one point, benchmark indices were going great guns, but profit taking once again saw the markets pare most of their early gains to end marginally higher. There are concerns that rising interest rates to quell higher inflation could hurt growth and may result in further correction. The Nifty moved within a range of 15765-15950 and the texture of the chart suggests a strong possibility of the continuation of a range bound activity in the near future. For the bulls, 15950/53300 would be the immediate resistance level and above the same, we could see a sharp intraday pullback rally till 16000-16100. On the other hand, 15750 could be the immediate support level, and below the same chances of hitting 15700-15600 would turn bright.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty continues to consolidate in the narrow range as the benchmark index has failed to give any directional movement. Sideways pattern may continue as long as Nifty stays within a tight band of 15800 and 16000 on a closing basis. A decisive breakout on either side may induce a decent move in the direction of the breakout.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

Continued selling by FIIs as they chase high yield US bonds restricts the Indian market to hold on to its pull-back rally, despite interest from the domestic investors. Weakness in global equities along with the unfavourable global cues led to heavy selling towards the closing hours, as the investors lacked confidence to take forward their positions. The investors are currently on a risk deleveraging phase, hunting for safe-haven investments.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director, Choice Broking

Technically, after forming the bearish candle on the weekly chart, the index has formed a Doji candlestick on the daily chart which shows indecisiveness among the trades. Moreover, the index has also faced a resistance from falling trend lines and showed profit booking from higher levels. However, Fibonacci retrenchment also has support around 15650 levels. Traders may find buying opportunities for short term as if 15650 levels is protected. In the hourly chart, with support of the middle Bollinger band short term upside movement is expected. Stock specific action would drive the market in coming days too.

On the derivatives front, the highest call OI is at 16000 strike price followed by 16200 strike prices while on the put side, highest OI is at 15500 strike price. India Vix closed at 24.53 with gain of 4.43 percent intraday indicating volatility is going to remain till weekly expiry. On the other hand, Nifty Bank has support at 32600 levels while resistance is placed at 34500 levels.

Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

On the technical front, the key resistance levels for Nifty 50 are 16000 and on the downside 15700 can act as strong support. Key resistance and support levels for Bank Nifty are 34100 and 33000 respectively.

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