Joe Burrow and Cincinnati Bengals head to the City of Angels to face Matt Stafford the Los Angeles Rams in this year’s Super Bowl battle. For the second consecutive year a Super Bowl contender has the luxury of playing under their home lights, with the game taking place at LA’s SoFi Stadium.
Considering that the Super Bowl is one of, if not the most bet event of the year, the betting lines have seen very little movement. The opening line of -3.5 in favor of the Rams has been seen as high as -4.5, but most NFL odds currently list the game at -4.
The total saw the opening offering of 48.5 quickly jump up to 50 before falling back to 49 and ultimately 49.5. With the Over still seeing the majority of the money, this line might creep up once again before kickoff to drive some action on the Under. That being said, high profile matchups tend to see casual fans back totals and props that hint to exciting, high-scoring games.
It has been a storybook run up to this point for the Cincinnati Bengals, with Joe Burrow’s late-game heroics defying the odds in each round of the playoffs. This run saw them advance past the AFC’s top two seeds, despite Cincinnati having been out-gained in each of their playoff games so far.
While the Bengals’ Joe Burrow is getting most of the media attention, pivotal turnovers, officiating decisions and defensive stops have all played a vital role in Cincinnati’s post season success.
Luck runs out eventually, and while the storyline has won over the media, the Bengals are fully capable of coming out flat on the world’s biggest stage.
Burrow was the most sacked quarterback in the regular season (51 times), recording an additional 12 in this playoff run alone. His already flawed offensive line is now tasked to contain one of the league’s premiere pass rushes.
Expect Burrow to find himself in numerous predicaments where he is forced to release the ball early and force passes in order to avoid a sack for a loss. This relentless pressure will lead to turnovers, holding penalties, and the obvious loss of downs when forced to throw the ball away. When considering that the Rams have held postseason opponents to less than 19% third-down conversion rate, the Bengals are likely to see their recent third-down conversion rate suffer (48.78% conversion rate), and these extended drives had been key to their playoff success.
These mistakes will either cost them points or lead to points from the opposition, and Cincinnati has not proven its ability to generate the offensive attack needed to overcome large deficits.
The strongest argument in favor of the Rams covering the line has nothing to do Rams offense, and everything to do with the lack of trust I have in the Bengals’ ability to put up points when needed.
That being said, the Rams’ offensive attack is somewhat undervalued entering this battle. Los Angeles’ anemic rushing attack can be attributed to the stiff run defenses the team faced in their postseason run. The additional week of rest will be good for the Rams’ ground game, with their three-back attack ready to test the Bengals’ defense.
It’s been fun Cincy, but I could easily see the Rams winning this game by more than a touchdown and have no issue laying the points in this situation.
Rams -4 is our favorite look at this year’s Super Bowl betting spread.
LA Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds Via BetOnline