So, Thursday’s bid wasn’t unanticipated, however that didn’t cease it from changing into a circus. Twitter shareholders don’t know what to assume. The inventory noticed notable positive aspects pre-market Thursday, topping $48 per share, earlier than ending the day down 1.7% to only over $45. Analysts contradict one another, with Gene Munster of Loup Ventures telling CNBC, “It probably happens,” and Ben Laidler, world markets strategist at eToro telling Reuters, “This opens a battle for control between [Agrawal and Musk].”
Even different entrepreneurs, like Mark Cuban, chimed in, saying, “I think Twitter will do everything possible not to sell the company. They will try to get a friendly to come in and buy Elon’s shares and get him out.”
Heck, even Musk mentioned, “I’m not sure I’ll be able to acquire it,” at a TED occasion on Thursday afternoon. He additionally cryptically mentioned there was a “Plan B” if this takeover supply didn’t undergo, however declined to elaborate.
Whether or not Musk is severe in his try to purchase Twitter, the motion actually places the social media firm in play. And if it desires to fend off Musk—or whomever comes subsequent—Twitter has a couple of choices out there to it, together with merely rejecting the supply outright (although that might result in shareholder lawsuits in the event that they really feel the corporate has not acted of their finest curiosity).
Swallowing a “poison pill”
This is probably the most acquainted anti-takeover methodology for most individuals. First utilized in 1982, the controversial protection dilutes shares, decreasing shareholders’ possession within the firm, to the extent that hostile bidders can’t achieve a controlling share within the firm with out spending much more than that they had deliberate.
Unfortunately, it’s not simply the acquirer who will get pissed off. Common shareholders additionally see their holdings diluted, which tends to alienate institutional buyers.
There are some alternate poison capsules, as nicely. A “flip-in pill” lets the corporate difficulty most popular shares to current shareholders (although which may not assist, given the truth that Musk already holds extra of the corporate’s inventory than anybody else). A “flip-over pill” lets shareholders purchase the acquirer’s shares at a reduced value. Netflix used this in opposition to Carl Icahn in 2012.
The Wall Street Journal, on Thursday afternoon, reported the corporate is, the truth is, weighing a poison capsule that will tackle the Musk supply. (Update: On Friday, Twitter introduced it could undertake a poison capsule technique that will kick in if a person or group had been to accumulate 15% of the corporate with out board approval.)
Capitulating to calls for
Some firms look to place an finish to hostile takeovers by catering to the calls for of the potential acquirer. In Musk’s case, that would come with an edit button, no advertisements on Twitter Blue, Dogecoin acceptance, and removing crypto spam bots. The concept is to acquiesce to the calls for earlier than the takeover combat is underway. At this level, it’s clearly too late for that. And given Musk’s historical past of erratic conduct, even when Twitter relented to among the issues the Tesla cofounder and CEO has grumbled about, it wouldn’t essentially stave off the supply.
Finding a white knight
Musk has mentioned his supply is his “last and final” one, and he had no intention to extend it. That could or might not be true, however one approach to take a look at it could be for Twitter’s board to search out one other purchaser, ideally one whose imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the corporate matches that of the board of administrators.
But . . . discovering somebody able to spend greater than $43 billion, who additionally respects the corporate’s plans for its future, is rather a lot simpler mentioned than carried out.
Musk owns 9.2% of Twitter’s shares, however the firm might conceivably repurchase them at a premium. That would, in idea, remove the takeover try, nevertheless it’s dear—and it has fallen out of favor with many firms, because it carries some capital positive aspects tax implications, as nicely. Also, there’s no assure Musk can be fascinated with promoting his shares. However, if he had been searching for a fast approach to unload them at a revenue, greenmail—which stems from the fusion of the phrases blackmail and dollars—may very well be an attractive methodology.
Update, April 15, 2022: This article has been up to date with details about Twitter’s poison capsule technique.