What Nifty, Bank Nifty rollovers data says: Where are Nifty, Bank Nifty headed in September series?

Bank Nifty, NiftyNifty August rollover is higher than its three-month average while Bank Nifty rollovers are lower than the three-month average.
(Image: REUTERS)

Nifty 50 may once again surge higher to hit fresh all-time highs in the September Futures & Options series, while Bank Nifty is expected to rally if it breaches 35,500 levels. In the August F&O series, Nifty touched a fresh all-time high, gaining 5.44%, the highest series to series gain recorded since February 2021. The 50-stock benchmark hit a high of 16,712 and closed within touching distance of the same. On the other hand, Bank Nifty closed at 35,617. Nifty August rollover is higher than its three-month average while Bank Nifty rollovers are lower than the three-month average.

Rollover data for September series

“The Market-wide August rollover stands at 89.15% on Thursday as compared to 92.05% on the same day of the previous expiry. Bank Nifty August rollover stands at 79.08% on Thursday compared to 81.26% on the same day of the previous expiry,” Rajesh Palviya, VP – Research (Head Technical & Derivatives), Axis Securities told Financial Express Online. Lower-than-average rollover suggests uncertainty, while higher rollovers than the three-month average signal positive sentiment in the market.

For Bank Nifty August rollover, standing at 79.08% is lower than its three-month average of 81.97% and lower than its six-month average of 79.41%. Meanwhile, Nifty August rollover is higher than its three-month average of 81.55% and higher than its six-month average of 78.48% as of today. 

What’s in store for Nifty ahead

Nifty is expected to trade in the 16,000-17,000 range in the current F&O series. “We expect Nifty is likely to continue its up move and it can scale up towards 16850-17000 level in September series, however on the lower side 16400-16300 are likely to act as support levels,” Rajesh Palviya said while advising investors to use corrections as a buying opportunity.

The weekly options data for Nifty indicated that no major correction is seen for the benchmark index. “Nifty has shown PUT OI addition of over 1.6 million shares at 16,600 levels. This shows that market participants do not expect any major corrective downside,” said Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services. However, he added that room for any up-move is yet to be created as 16,700 holds maximum Call OI. “This indicates that the NIFTY is likely to oscillate between 16500-16700 as per the options data at present,” he added.

Among fundamental reasons, Navneet Daga, Lead Derivative Analyst, Yes Securities said that the global backdrop of Federal Reserve’s annual symposium (taper news flows), rising dollar index and geopolitical tension likely to fuel volatility in the near term. He expects bouts of profit booking with the return of profitability.

Will Bank Nifty regain 36,000?

The Banking index breached 36,000 during the August series but could not hold above it. “We are expecting Bank Nifty to reach the levels of 36,700 (52.6 % OI change) with max pain at 35500,” Vishal Balabhadruni, Senior Research Analyst at CapitalVia Global Research told Financial Express Online. 

Bank Nifty is expected to see an up-move only after crossing 35,500, said Milan Vaishnav. “Highest Put writing and Call writing, both have taken place at 35,500 levels today, and both these strikes hold the highest Call and PUT OI as well. So, in a way, 35,500 has become an inflection point for the Bank Nifty in the immediate near term. We will see a meaningful up move if Bank Nifty moves past 35,500 levels and sustains above that point,” he added.

(The stock recommendations in this story are by the respective research and brokerage firms. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

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